Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 November 2001 1200 UTC
Michelle.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	85.	127.	187.	188.	252.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
AVAL	59.	145.	121.	124.	145.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	31%	-14%	35%	34%	42%

GFNO	95.	221.	370.	609.	851.	1273.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
GFAL	114.	222.	361.	599.	847.	1215.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	-20%	0%	2%	2%	0%	5%

VBNO	110.	291.	473.	689.	845.	979.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
VBAL	110.	299.	479.	695.	863.	998.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	0%	-3%	-1%	-1%	-2%	-2%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	-87.	-87.	-66.	-41.	-25.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
AVAL	-61.	-65.	-53.	-19.	6.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	30%	25%	20%	54%	76%

GFNO	-20.	-14.	1.	18.	8.	5.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
GFAL	-26.	-18.	-6.	24.	10.	10.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	-30%	-29%	-500%	-33%	-25%	-100%

SHNO	3.	-7.	-2.	9.	-3.	-10.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
SHAL	3.	-7.	-2.	11.	0.	-5.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	0%	0%	0%	-22%	100%	50%

DSNO	3.	-7.	-2.	-9.	-21.	-27.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
DSAL	3.	-7.	-2.	-8.	-19.	-23.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	0%	0%	0%	11%	10%	15%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 30 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 21.43 82.84 33.5 107.8 Punta del Guanal, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL 21.47 82.45 33.0 67.3 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP 14% 38%

GFNO 21.83 84.49 31.5 280.2 Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL 22.01 84.31 35.5 265.1 Ciudad Sandino, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP -267% 5%

VBNO 21.93 84.79 44.0 312.3 Near Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL 21.94 84.96 43.0 329.8 Near Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 7% -6%

04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 35 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 22.56 81.65 40.5 68.9 Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
AVAL 22.17 81.70 37.0 52.0 Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP 64% 25%

GFNO 21.83 84.49 31.5 340.3 Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL 22.45 84.26 38.0 317.0 Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 14% 7%

VBNO 22.30 84.40 48.0 329.9 Near Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL 22.59 84.26 50.0 319.1 Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP -15% 3%

05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 48 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 24.71 78.31 53.5 55.3 Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
AVAL 25.01 78.19 52.0 81.2 San Andros, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP 27% -47%

GFNO 27.24 82.61 72.5 565.2 Sarasota, FL
GFAL 26.50 82.21 68.5 488.1 Captiva Island, FL
%IMP 16% 14%

VBNO 24.66 78.33 74.0 52.1 Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL 24.71 78.34 74.5 57.1 Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP -1% -10%

05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 54 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 25.02 77.53 56.5 121.2 Clifton, New Providence, Bahamas
AVAL 25.86 77.23 55.5 97.6 Southwest Point, Abaco Island, Bahamas
%IMP 40% 19%

GFNO 30.85 82.77 102.5 869.6 Approach to St. Mary's, GA
GFAL 31.13 81.45 106.0 805.9 Brunswick, GA
%IMP -7% 7%

VBNO 25.18 76.08 80.0 40.4 Palmetto Point, Eleuthera, Bahamas
VBAL 25.23 76.25 80.0 24.2 Governor's Harbour, Eleuthera, Bahamas
%IMP 0% 40%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 30 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	21.43	82.84	33.5	107.8	Punta del Guanal, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL	21.47	82.45	33.0	67.3	Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP			14%	38%

GFNO	21.83	84.49	31.5	280.2	Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL	22.01	84.31	35.5	265.1	Ciudad Sandino, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			-267%	5%

VBNO	21.93	84.79	44.0	312.3	Near Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL	21.94	84.96	43.0	329.8	Near Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			7%	-6%


04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 35 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	22.56	81.65	40.5	68.9	Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
AVAL	22.17	81.70	37.0	52.0	Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP			64%	25%

GFNO	21.83	84.49	31.5	340.3	Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL	22.45	84.26	38.0	317.0	Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			14%	7%

VBNO	22.30	84.40	48.0	329.9	Near Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL	22.59	84.26	50.0	319.1	Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			-15%	3%


05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 48 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION


AVNN	24.71	78.31	53.5	55.3	Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
AVAL	25.01	78.19	52.0	81.2	San Andros, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP			27%	-47%

GFNO	27.24	82.61	72.5	565.2	Sarasota, FL
GFAL	26.50	82.21	68.5	488.1	Captiva Island, FL
%IMP			16%	14%

VBNO	24.66	78.33	74.0	52.1	Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL	24.71	78.34	74.5	57.1	Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP			-1%	-10%


05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 54 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	25.02	77.53	56.5	121.2	Clifton, New Providence, Bahamas
AVAL	25.86	77.23	55.5	97.6	Southwest Point, Abaco Island, Bahamas
%IMP			40%	19%

GFNO	30.85	82.77	102.5	869.6	Approach to St. Mary's, GA
GFAL	31.13	81.45	106.0	805.9	Brunswick, GA
%IMP			-7%	7%

VBNO	25.18	76.08	80.0	40.4	Palmetto Point, Eleuthera, Bahamas
VBAL	25.23	76.25	80.0	24.2	Governor's Harbour, Eleuthera, Bahamas
%IMP			0%	40%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 03 November 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 November 2001 1200 UTC
Michelle.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 03 November 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC Michelle.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 03 November 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 November 2001 1200 UTC
Michelle.

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 1200 UTC.