Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 November 2001 0600 UTC
Michelle.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN46.86.214.233.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
AVAL133.54.204.233.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP-189%37%5%0%
GFNO87.230.414.603.866.1097.1623.9999.9999.9999.
GFAL86.209.387.586.790.1002.1550.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP1%9%7%3%9%9%4%
VBNO57.179.359.514.689.728.815.9999.9999.9999.
VBAL52.183.357.518.705.745.849.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP9%-2%1%-1%-2%-2%-4%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-80.-88.-80.-46.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
AVAL-49.-68.-80.-46.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP39%23%0%0%
GFNO-18.-26.-21.21.15.4.14.9999.9999.9999.
GFAL-6.-27.-25.23.18.8.20.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP33%-4%-19%-10%-20%-100%-43%
SHNO7.-6.-8.15.6.-10.-1.9999.9999.9999.
SHAL6.-7.-9.13.4.-11.-3.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP14%-17%-13%13%33%-10%-200%
DSNO7.-6.-8.-8.-17.-32.-24.9999.9999.9999.
DSAL6.-7.-9.-9.-18.-33.-25.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP14%-17%-13%-13%-6%-3%-4%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 36 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN21.7083.0442.5130.0Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL21.6383.1942.0144.3Punta Frances, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP8%-11%
GFNO21.9485.7940.0414.7Aproach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL21.8685.5841.5392.3Aproach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP-38%5%
VBNO21.7783.9651.5225.1Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL21.9283.0157.0133.3Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP-35%41%
04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 41 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN Tracker lost center
AVAL Tracker lost center
%IMP
GFNO23.4485.1955.5435.0Approach to Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL23.2784.5656.0368.1Approach to Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP-3%15%
VBNO22.6582.0661.5107.4Surgidero de Batabano, Habana, Cuba
VBAL22.3582.0661.592.7Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP0%14%
05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 54 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN
AVAL
%IMP
GFNO29.3283.14100.5755.5Old Town, FL
GFAL26.9382.3678.5525.5Manasota Key, FL
%IMP41%30%
VBNO24.1377.8775.023.0Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL23.9577.5276.062.3Kamps Bay, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP-3%-171%
05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 60 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN
AVAL
%IMP
GFNO30.9682.60111.0866.2Approach to Brunswick, GA
GFAL30.8381.69109.5795.4Approach to Brunswick, GA
%IMP3%8%
VBNO24.7375.7380.0100.4Arthur's Town, Cat Island, Bahamas
VBAL24.5075.6480.5125.9Near Arthur's Town, Cat Island, Bahamas
%IMP-3%-25%


Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 November 2001 0600 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.


Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 03 November 2001 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.


Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 0600 UTC.


Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 0600 UTC.