Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
02 November 2001 1800 UTC
Michelle.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 31. | 84. | 200. | 243. | 277. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | 39. | 105. | 175. | 189. | 154. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -26% | -25% | 13% | 22% | 44%
|
| GFNO | 42. | 100. | 256. | 439. | 615. | 871. | 1149. | 1657. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | 33. | 86. | 209. | 341. | 491. | 722. | 963. | 1420. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 21% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 20% | 17% | 16% | 14%
|
| VBNO | 15. | 95. | 220. | 373. | 523. | 727. | 819. | 985. | 9999. | 9999.
| VBAL | 11. | 84. | 210. | 363. | 513. | 713. | 797. | 964. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 27% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -77. | -81. | -86. | -76. | -41. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | -70. | -74. | -79. | -67. | -33. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 9% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 20%
|
| GFNO | -14. | -16. | -16. | -4. | 19. | 14. | 9. | 15. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | -7. | -10. | -21. | -4. | 18. | 13. | -6. | 16. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 50% | 38% | -31% | 0% | 5% | 7% | 33% | -7%
|
| SHNO | -12. | -12. | -21. | -19. | 9. | 4. | -5. | 8. | 9999. | 9999.
| SHAL | -12. | -12. | -22. | -20. | 9. | 4. | -5. | 7. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | -5% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13%
|
| DSNO | -12. | -12. | -21. | -19. | -12. | -18. | -28. | -14. | 9999. | 9999.
| DSAL | -12. | -12. | -22. | -20. | -12. | -18. | -28. | -15. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | -5% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -7%
| | ||||||||||
04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 48 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.79 | 84.52 | 44.0 | 436.2 | Near Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.96 | 83.99 | 41.5 | 231.7 | Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | -63% | 47%
|
| GFNO | 21.70 | 85.50 | 38.5 | 382.8 | Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFAL | 21.90 | 84.99 | 41.5 | 332.3 | Near Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 32% | 13%
|
| VBNO | 21.48 | 83.09 | 68.0 | 133.4 | Punta Frances, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| VBAL | 21.54 | 82.99 | 68.0 | 123.1 | Punta Frances, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | 0% | 8%
|
|
| 04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 53 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.18 | 83.98 | 49.0 | 237.2 | Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.96 | 83.99 | 41.5 | 287.8 | Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | -188% | -21%
|
| GFNO | 21.70 | 85.50 | 38.5 | 445.5 | Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFAL | 21.90 | 84.99 | 41.5 | 391.0 | Near Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 21% | 12%
|
| VBNO | 22.06 | 81.02 | 77.5 | 19.1 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| VBAL | 22.09 | 81.29 | 76.0 | 9.3 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP | 6% | 51%
|
|
| 05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 66 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
|
| AVNN | Tracker lost center
| AVAL | 25.29 | 78.32 | 69.5 | 114.6 | Near Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP
|
| GFNO | 27.93 | 83.36 | 97.5 | 669.7 | Indian Shores, FL
| GFAL | 26.27 | 81.86 | 87.0 | 445.3 | Naples Park, FL
| %IMP | 33% | 34%
|
| VBNO | 23.18 | 77.39 | 89.5 | 139.0 | Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
| VBAL | 23.33 | 77.46 | 89.0 | 120.9 | Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 1% | 13%
|
|
| 05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 72 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | Tracker lost center
| AVAL | 25.69 | 77.16 | 73.0 | 82.7 | Southwest Point, Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | No fourth landfall
| GFAL | No fourth landfall
| %IMP
|
| VBNO | 23.67 | 75.90 | 93.5 | 198.7 | Rolleville, Great Exuma, Bahamas
| VBAL | 23.80 | 75.99 | 93.0 | 182.5 | Rolleville, Great Exuma, Bahamas
| %IMP | 2% | 8%
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1.
NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 November 2001 1800 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 02 November 2001 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3.
Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the
no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 1800 UTC.
