Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
02 November 2001 1200 UTC
Michelle.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	31.	61.	84.	144.	128.	144.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
AVAL	46.	113.	143.	197.	140.	92.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	-48%	-85%	-70%	-37%	-9%	36%

GFNO	69.	95.	200.	326.	484.	693.	899.	1067.	9999.	9999.
GFAL	71.	95.	209.	344.	524.	694.	831.	1047.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	-3%	0%	-5%	-6%	-8%	0%	8%	2%

VBNO	42.	100.	242.	426.	585.	795.	973.	1088.	9999.	9999.
VBAL	42.	100.	242.	415.	570.	776.	939.	1037.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	0%	0%	0%	3%	3%	2%	3%	5%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	-65.	-87.	-85.	-85.	-69.	-42.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
AVAL	-58.	-79.	-78.	-79.	-63.	-33.	9999.	9999.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	11%	9%	8%	7%	9%	21%

GFNO	4.	-19.	-23.	-22.	3.	5.	7.	12.	9999.	9999.
GFAL	-1.	-20.	-14.	-21.	1.	9.	17.	12.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	75%	-5%	39%	5%	67%	-80%	-143%	0%

SHNO	-15.	-33.	-30.	-34.	-23.	-4.	-6.	-3.	9999.	9999.
SHAL	-15.	-33.	-29.	-33.	-21.	-1.	-3.	-1.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	0%	0%	3%	3%	9%	75%	50%	67%

DSNO	-15.	-33.	-30.	-34.	-23.	-28.	-30.	-27.	9999.	9999.
DSAL	-15.	-33.	-29.	-33.	-21.	-26.	-28.	-26.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	0%	0%	3%	3%	9%	7%	7%	4%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 54 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 21.86 83.03 53.5 133.1 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL 21.91 83.98 47.0 229.6 Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP -1300% -73%

GFNO 21.89 85.60 52.5 394.7 Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL 21.78 85.90 52.5 424.5 Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 0% -8%

VBNO 21.80 84.51 76.5 281.8 Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL 21.85 84.96 73.0 328.6 Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP -19% -17%

04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 59 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 22.37 81.19 64.0 30.0 Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
AVAL 22.72 82.72 56.5 170.6 Near Artemis, Habana, Cuba
%IMP 50% -469%

GFNO 23.64 84.88 71.0 413.7 Approach to Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL 23.20 84.55 73.0 364.6 Approach to Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP -17% 12%

VBNO 22.61 81.62 89.5 71.2 Near Surgidero de Batabano, La Habana Cuba
VBAL 22.68 82.16 86.5 117.8 Near Surgidero de Batabano, La Habana Cuba
%IMP 15% -35%

05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 72 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 23.60 79.20 72.0 114.5
AVAL 23.90 78.80 72.0 92.5
%IMP 0% 19%

GFNO 26.02 81.67 91.0 415.6 Everglades City, FL
GFAL 25.97 81.73 89.0 418.5 Everglades City, FL
%IMP 11% -1%

VBNO 23.93 77.88 100.5 42.9 Southern Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL 24.07 77.86 99.5 29.2 Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP 4% 32%

05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 78 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN Tracker lost center
AVAL Tracker lost center
%IMP

GFNO 29.60 76.50 120.0 466.7
GFAL 30.20 75.20 120.0 546.2
%IMP 0% -17%

VBNO 24.75 75.64 105.5 105.2 Arthur's Town, Cat Island, Bahamas
VBAL 24.70 76.16 103.5 81.4 John Millars, Eleuthera, Bahamas
%IMP 7% 23%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 54 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	21.86	83.03	53.5	133.1	Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL	21.91	83.98	47.0	229.6	Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			-1300%	-73%

GFNO	21.89	85.60	52.5	394.7	Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL	21.78	85.90	52.5	424.5	Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			0%	-8%

VBNO	21.80	84.51	76.5	281.8	Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL	21.85	84.96	73.0	328.6	Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			-19%	-17%


04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 59 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	22.37	81.19	64.0	30.0	Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
AVAL	22.72	82.72	56.5	170.6	Near Artemis, Habana, Cuba
%IMP			50%	-469%

GFNO	23.64	84.88	71.0	413.7	Approach to Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL	23.20	84.55	73.0	364.6	Approach to Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			-17%	12%

VBNO	22.61	81.62	89.5	71.2	Near Surgidero de Batabano, La Habana Cuba
VBAL	22.68	82.16	86.5	117.8	Near Surgidero de Batabano, La Habana Cuba
%IMP			15%	-35%


05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 72 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION


AVNN	23.60	79.20	72.0	114.5
AVAL	23.90	78.80	72.0	92.5
%IMP			0%	19%

GFNO	26.02	81.67	91.0	415.6	Everglades City, FL
GFAL	25.97	81.73	89.0	418.5	Everglades City, FL
%IMP			11%	-1%

VBNO	23.93	77.88	100.5	42.9	Southern Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL	24.07	77.86	99.5	29.2	Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP			4%	32%


05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 78 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN					Tracker lost center
AVAL					Tracker lost center
%IMP

GFNO	29.60	76.50	120.0	466.7
GFAL	30.20	75.20	120.0	546.2
%IMP			0%	-17%

VBNO	24.75	75.64	105.5	105.2	Arthur's Town, Cat Island, Bahamas
VBAL	24.70	76.16	103.5	81.4	John Millars, Eleuthera, Bahamas
%IMP			7%	23%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 02 November 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
02 November 2001 1200 UTC
Michelle.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 02 November 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC Michelle.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 02 November 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
02 November 2001 1200 UTC
Michelle.

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 1200 UTC.