Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
02 November 2001 0600 UTC
Michelle.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN59.94.102.130.146.76.177.9999.9999.9999.
AVAL46.126.148.175.181.112.49.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP22%-34%-45%-33%-24%-47%72%
GFNO32.100.159.261.372.582.800.1003.1275.9999.
GFAL54.105.143.198.320.526.755.926.1142.9999.
%IMP-69%-5%10%24%14%10%6%8%10%
VBNO15.32.90.188.313.392.503.432.324.9999.
VBAL15.32.87.177.283.365.479.402.324.9999.
%IMP0%0%3%6%10%7%5%7%0%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-53.-75.-81.-87.-81.-47.-35.9999.9999.9999.
AVAL-50.-69.-75.-80.-75.-41.-26.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP6%8%7%8%7%13%26%
GFNO2.-10.-22.-26.-29.14.11.7.25.9999.
GFAL0.-20.-22.-25.-17.20.6.8.31.9999.
%IMP100%-100%0%4%41%-43%45%-14%-24%
SHNO-12.-28.-27.-36.-32.-1.-2.-8.5.9999.
SHAL-12.-28.-28.-36.-32.-1.-1.-7.-17.9999.
%IMP0%0%-4%0%0%0%50%13%-240%
DSNO-12.-28.-27.-36.-32.-27.-26.-33.9999.9999.
DSAL-12.-28.-28.-36.-32.-27.-26.-31.9999.9999.
%IMP0%0%-4%0%0%0%0%6%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 60 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN21.8783.0361.0133.5 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL22.0783.3561.0172.0 Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP0%-29%
GFNO21.8685.4060.5373.8 Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL21.8384.9062.5322.2 Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP-400%14%
VBNO21.5083.1072.0134.4 Punta Frances, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
VBAL21.4382.9771.0121.2 Punta de Guanal, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP8%10%
04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 65 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN22.2681.8366.520.5 Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
AVAL22.6681.9068.095.1 Near Surgidero de Batabano, Habana, Cuba
%IMP-100%-364%
GFNO21.8685.4060.5433.5 Approach to Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL21.8384.9062.5382.4 Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP44%12%
VBNO22.1881.4080.022.4 Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
VBAL22.1281.2379.53.8 Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP70%83%
05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 78 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN23.6777.4782.088.3 Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
AVAL24.3477.9480.57.5 Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP38%92%
GFNO25.6481.27101.0361.4 Everglades City, FL
GFAL25.2380.47100.0269.8 Florida Bay, FL
%IMP4%25%
VBNO23.6077.4792.094.6 Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL23.5277.5591.098.0 Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP7%-4%
05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 84 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNNTracker lost center
AVALTracker lost center
%IMP
GFNO26.8879.15108.5319.8 West End, Grand Bahama, Bahamas
GFAL26.8977.55109.0201.4 Cooper's Town, Abaco Island, Bahamas
%IMP-2%37%
VBNO24.2875.4696.5156.4 New Bight, Cat Island, Bahamas
VBAL24.3075.4096.0158.4 New Bight, Cat Island, Bahamas
%IMP4%-1%


Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 November 2001 0600 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.


Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 02 November 2001 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.


Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 0600 UTC.


Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 0600 UTC.