Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
02 November 2001 0000 UTC
Michelle.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 34. | 74. | 115. | 84. | 53. | 49. | 73. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | 48. | 95. | 124. | 80. | 43. | 85. | 107. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -41% | -28% | -8% | 5% | 19% | -73% | -47%
|
| GFNO | 54. | 129. | 178. | 253. | 365. | 411. | 392. | 347. | 360. | 9999.
| GFAL | 44. | 140. | 176. | 244. | 276. | 164. | 353. | 393. | 441. | 9999.
| %IMP | 19% | -9% | 1% | 4% | 24% | 40% | 10% | -13% | -23%
|
| VBNO | 69. | 143. | 216. | 302. | 408. | 486. | 610. | 687. | 654. | 9999.
| VBAL | 61. | 124. | 175. | 275. | 406. | 509. | 663. | 754. | 748. | 9999.
| %IMP | 12% | 13% | 19% | 9% | 0% | -5% | -9% | -10% | -14%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -44. | -63. | -87. | -86. | -90. | -70. | -44. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | -41. | -62. | -81. | -82. | -81. | -68. | -33. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 7% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 3% | 25%
|
| GFNO | 14. | 1. | -24. | -27. | -38. | -9. | 25. | 20. | 34. | 9999.
| GFAL | 14. | 0. | -28. | -36. | -35. | -8. | 12. | 20. | 34. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | 100% | -17% | -33% | 8% | 11% | 52% | 0% | 0%
|
| SHNO | -8. | -20. | -39. | -38. | -43. | -31. | -10. | -9. | -3. | 9999.
| SHAL | -8. | -21. | -41. | -40. | -46. | -33. | -11. | -9. | -5. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -7% | -6% | -10% | 0% | 0%
|
| DSNO | -8. | -20. | -39. | -38. | -43. | -31. | -30. | -29. | -24. | 9999.
| DSAL | -8. | -21. | -41. | -40. | -46. | -33. | -31. | -29. | -25. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -7% | -6% | -3% | 0% | -4%
| | ||||||||||
04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 66 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.32 | 82.51 | 63.5 | 76.1 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.36 | 81.33 | 65.5 | 51.0 | Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | 80% | 33%
|
| GFNO | 21.26 | 81.11 | 82.0 | 76.2 | Approach to Cayo Largo, Cuba
| GFAL | 21.57 | 82.48 | 70.5 | 70.7 | Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | 72% | 7%
|
| VBNO | 20.70 | 86.40 | 48.0 | 485.0 | Isla Cozumel, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| VBAL | 20.45 | 86.44 | 58.5 | 495.3 | Isla Cozumel, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 38% | -2%
|
|
| 04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 71 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.05 | 80.89 | 72.5 | 32.4 | Near Playa Giron, Matanzas, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.89 | 80.31 | 71.0 | 94.6 | Near Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
| %IMP | 100% | -192%
|
| GFNO | 21.95 | 80.33 | 85.0 | 91.1 | Near Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
| GFAL | 22.32 | 82.08 | 74.5 | 93.8 | Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP | 75% | -3%
|
| VBNO | 22.34 | 84.41 | 80.0 | 331.2 | Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| VBAL | 22.66 | 82.05 | 92.5 | 107.2 | Near Surgidero de Batabano, Habana, Cuba
| %IMP | -139% | 68%
|
|
| 05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 84 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
|
| AVNN | 23.70 | 77.70 | 84.0 | 73.3 |
| AVAL | 23.67 | 77.44 | 82.5 | 90.2 | Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | und | -23%
|
| GFNO | 24.15 | 77.96 | 94.0 | 17.2 | Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
| GFAL | 25.40 | 78.30 | 96.0 | 125.9 | Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -20% | -732%
|
| VBNO | 24.61 | 78.42 | 102.5 | 54.7 | Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
| VBAL | 24.43 | 78.25 | 104.5 | 29.1 | Near Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -11% | 47%
|
|
| 05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 90 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | Tracker lost center
| AVAL | Tracker lost center
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | 25.30 | 76.36 | 99.5 | 11.8 | James Cistern, Eleuthera, Bahamas
| GFAL | 26.05 | 77.36 | 99.0 | 120.2 | Sandy Point, Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 5% | -919%
|
| VBNO | 25.41 | 76.48 | 107.0 | 8.1 | Alice Town, Eleuthera, Bahamas
| VBAL | 25.30 | 76.35 | 109.0 | 12.2 | James Cistern, Eleuthera, Bahamas
| %IMP | -12% | -51%
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1.
NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 02 November 2001 0000 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 02 November 2001 0000 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3.
Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the
no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 02 November 2001 0000 UTC.
