Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 November 2001 1800 UTC
Michelle.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	24.	62.	95.	84.	59.	73.	122.	205.	9999.	9999.
AVAL	33.	21.	48.	78.	89.	108.	84.	126.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	-38%	66%	49%	7%	-51%	-48%	31%	39%

GFNO	61.	77.	98.	122.	160.	165.	296.	434.	485.	585.
GFAL	75.	141.	171.	214.	199.	167.	306.	383.	398.	509.
%IMP	-23%	-83%	-74%	-75%	-24%	-1%	-3%	12%	18%	13%

VBNO	46.	86.	110.	181.	261.	356.	415.	493.	391.	283.
VBAL	46.	95.	124.	194.	271.	353.	401.	470.	356.	245.
%IMP	0%	-10%	-13%	-7%	-4%	1%	3%	5%	8%	13%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	-37.	-54.	-79.	-84.	-92.	-83.	-47.	-39.	9999.	9999.
AVAL	-37.	-54.	-75.	-81.	-87.	-79.	-43.	-33.	9999.	9999.
%IMP	0%	0%	5%	4%	5%	5%	9%	15%

GFNO	20.	0.	-24.	-20.	-38.	-16.	18.	9.	35.	45.
GFAL	23.	3.	-26.	-22.	-27.	-14.	15.	19.	32.	45.
%IMP	-15%	und	-8%	-10%	29%	13%	17%	-111%	9%	0%

SHNO	4.	-8.	-28.	-28.	-38.	-35.	-2.	1.	-3.	17.
SHAL	4.	-9.	-28.	-28.	-37.	-34.	-2.	2.	-2.	18.
%IMP	0%	-13%	0%	0%	3%	3%	0%	-100%	33%	-6%

DSNO	4.	-8.	-28.	-28.	-38.	-35.	-14.	-27.	-31.	-11.
DSAL	4.	-9.	-28.	-28.	-37.	-34.	-13.	-27.	-31.	-10.
%IMP	0%	-13%	0%	0%	3%	3%	7%	0%	0%	9%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 72 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 21.47 82.57 71.5 79.7 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL 22.59 83.11 68.0 135.7 Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP -700% -70%

GFNO 21.66 83.30 73.5 156.0 Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
GFAL 21.61 83.16 74.5 141.1 Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP -67% 10%

VBNO 21.74 83.11 85.5 137.9 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
VBAL 21.79 83.10 85.0 138.1 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP 4% 0%

04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 77 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 22.04 80.43 83.0 79.6 Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
AVAL 22.26 81.95 77.5 79.2 Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP 92% 1%

GFNO 22.56 82.94 79.5 186.0 Near Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL 22.45 83.10 78.5 199.2 Near Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP 33% -7%

VBNO 22.27 81.99 90.5 83.4 Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
VBAL 22.43 81.72 91.0 64.8 Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP -4% 22%

05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 90 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 23.59 77.33 95.5 104.1 Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
AVAL 23.75 77.67 93.0 69.7 Water Cays, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP 45% 33%

GFNO 24.51 80.06 98.0 209.7 Approach to Plantation Key, FL
GFAL 25.50 78.52 101.5 143.2 Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP -44% 32%

VBNO 24.33 77.97 103.5 4.5 Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL 24.27 77.84 103.0 16.5 Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP 4% -267%

05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 96 h into forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN Tracker lost center
AVAL Tracker lost center
%IMP

GFNO 26.80 77.50 108.0 190.4 Cooper's Town, Abaco Island, Bahamas
GFAL 26.59 77.38 105.5 164.5 Treasure Cay, Abaco Island, Bahamas
%IMP 21% 14%

VBNO 25.19 76.32 107.5 24.7 Governor's Harbour, Eleuthera, Bahamas
VBAL 25.08 76.16 107.0 43.0 Savannah Sound, Eleuthera, Bahamas
%IMP 4% -74%

Landfall forecasts
04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 72 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	21.47	82.57	71.5	79.7	Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL	22.59	83.11	68.0	135.7	Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP			-700%	-70%

GFNO	21.66	83.30	73.5	156.0	Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
GFAL	21.61	83.16	74.5	141.1	Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP			-67%	10%

VBNO	21.74	83.11	85.5	137.9	Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
VBAL	21.79	83.10	85.0	138.1	Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP			4%	0%

04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 77 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN	22.04	80.43	83.0	79.6	Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
AVAL	22.26	81.95	77.5	79.2	Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP			92%	1%

GFNO	22.56	82.94	79.5	186.0	Near Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL	22.45	83.10	78.5	199.2	Near Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP			33%	-7%

VBNO	22.27	81.99	90.5	83.4	Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
VBAL	22.43	81.72	91.0	64.8	Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
%IMP			-4%	22%

05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 90 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION


AVNN	23.59	77.33	95.5	104.1	Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
AVAL	23.75	77.67	93.0	69.7	Water Cays, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP			45%	33%

GFNO	24.51	80.06	98.0	209.7	Approach to Plantation Key, FL
GFAL	25.50	78.52	101.5	143.2	Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP			-44%	32%

VBNO	24.33	77.97	103.5	4.5	Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL	24.27	77.84	103.0	16.5	Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP			4%	-267%

05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 96 h into forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

AVNN					Tracker lost center
AVAL					Tracker lost center
%IMP

GFNO	26.80	77.50	108.0	190.4	Cooper's Town, Abaco Island, Bahamas
GFAL	26.59	77.38	105.5	164.5	Treasure Cay, Abaco Island, Bahamas
%IMP			21%	14%

VBNO	25.19	76.32	107.5	24.7	Governor's Harbour, Eleuthera, Bahamas
VBAL	25.08	76.16	107.0	43.0	Savannah Sound, Eleuthera, Bahamas
%IMP			4%	-74%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 01 November 2001 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 November 2001 1800 UTC
Michelle.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 01 November 2001 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC Michelle.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 01 November 2001 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 November 2001 1800 UTC
Michelle.

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 01 November 2001 1800 UTC.