Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 November 2001 0600 UTC
Michelle.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 108. | 131. | 179. | 162. | 186. | 130. | 141. | 239. | 323. | 347.
| AVAL | 116. | 123. | 152. | 123. | 102. | 70. | 70. | 189. | 257. | 222.
| %IMP | -7% | 6% | 15% | 24% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 21% | 20% | 36%
|
| GFNO | 81. | 152. | 225. | 237. | 263. | 324. | 416. | 530. | 682. | 852.
| GFAL | 115. | 184. | 246. | 256. | 209. | 327. | 508. | 579. | 822. | 1038.
| %IMP | -42% | -21% | -9% | -8% | 21% | -1% | -22% | -9% | -21% | -22%
|
| VBNO | 81. | 201. | 315. | 335. | 360. | 350. | 334. | 340. | 449. | 449.
| VBAL | 67. | 187. | 296. | 323. | 350. | 349. | 352. | 375. | 488. | 506.
| %IMP | 17% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 0% | -5% | -10% | -9% | -13%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -25. | -35. | -54. | -78. | -82. | -92. | -83. | -44. | -43. | -31.
| AVAL | -24. | -34. | -52. | -78. | -80. | -88. | -81. | -44. | -36. | -26.
| %IMP | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 16% | 16%
|
| GFNO | 15. | 11. | -7. | -20. | -20. | -31. | -17. | 18. | 15. | 3.
| GFAL | -1. | -12. | -15. | -36. | -26. | -22. | -21. | 35. | 27. | 20.
| %IMP | 93% | -9% | -114% | -80% | -30% | 29% | -24% | -94% | -80% | -567%
|
| SHNO | -4. | -5. | -17. | -35. | -37. | -48. | -46. | -14. | 9999. | 9999.
| SHAL | -4. | -7. | -18. | -38. | -40. | -51. | -48. | -45. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | -40% | -6% | -9% | -8% | -6% | -4% | -221%
|
| DSNO | -4. | -5. | -17. | -35. | -37. | -48. | -46. | -14. | 9999. | 9999.
| DSAL | -4. | -7. | -18. | -38. | -40. | -51. | -48. | -45. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | -40% | -6% | -9% | -8% | -6% | -4% | -221%
| | ||||||||||
04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 84 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.06 | 81.52 | 93.0 | 56.9 | Approach to Cayo Largo, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.05 | 81.47 | 87.5 | 60.6 | Approach to Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | 61% | -7%
|
| GFNO | 20.52 | 86.40 | 68.0 | 489.3 | Approach to Isla Cozumel, Quintana Roo, Mexico
| GFAL | 19.89 | 86.23 | 85.0 | 493.9 | Approach to Isla Cozumel, Quintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 94% | -1%
|
| VBNO | 22.15 | 84.43 | 88.0 | 280.7 | Arroyos de Mantua, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| VBAL | 21.93 | 84.87 | 86.5 | 320.5 | Cabo de San Antonio, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 37% | -14%
|
| 04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 89 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.63 | 79.70 | 100.5 | 163.2 | Near Tunas de Zaza, Spiritus Sancti, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.53 | 79.32 | 97.5 | 204.0 | Near Tunas de Zaza, Spiritus Sancti, Cuba
| %IMP | 26% | -25%
|
| GFNO | 22.16 | 85.88 | 81.0 | 481.7 | Approach to Cabo de S. Antonio, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFAL | 21.92 | 83.97 | 105.0 | 286.0 | Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | -200% | 41%
|
| VBNO | 22.40 | 81.82 | 100.5 | 71.9 | Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| VBAL | 22.31 | 81.94 | 101.5 | 79.6 | Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP | -9% | -11%
|
| 05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 102 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
|
| AVNN | 23.52 | 75.77 | 114.0 | 242.5 | George-Town, Great Exuma, Bahamas
| AVAL | 23.39 | 75.55 | 109.5 | 268.7 | William's Town, Little Exuma, Bahamas
| %IMP | 25% | -11%
|
| GFNO | 26.80 | 81.20 | 120.0 | 424.3
| GFAL | 26.39 | 81.88 | 116.0 | 453.5 | Estero Bay, FL
| %IMP | 17% | -7%
|
| VBNO | 23.26 | 77.40 | 115.0 | 130.7 | Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
| VBAL | 23.43 | 77.52 | 116.5 | 108.3 | Cistern Point, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -33% | 5%
|
| 05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 108 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 23.69 | 75.30 | 115.5 | 220.1 | Stella Maris, Long Island, Bahamas
| AVAL | 23.69 | 74.97 | 111.0 | 238.7 | Port Nelson, Rum Cay, Bahamas
| %IMP | 60% | -8%
|
| GFNO | 26.80 | 81.20 | 120.0 | 503.5
| GFAL | 23.90 | 82.40 | 120.0 | 628.4
| %IMP | 0% | -25%
|
| VBNO | 23.75 | 75.97 | 119.0 | 188.4 | Rolleville, Great
Exuma, Bahamas
| VBAL | 23.80 | 76.30 | 120.0 | 178.0
| %IMP | -9% | 6%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1.
NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 November 2001 0600 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 01 November 2001 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3.
Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the
no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 01 November 2001 0600 UTC.
