Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 November 2001 0000 UTC
Michelle.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN53.107.150.137.74.95.193.305.465.595.
AVAL34.96.101.54.61.54.15.133.222.206.
%IMP36%10%33%61%18%43%92%56%52%65%
GFNO79.129.243.295.281.343.418.421.345.408.
GFAL108.188.278.283.222.308.369.482.612.655.
%IMP-38%-46%-14%4%21%10%12%-14%-77%-61%
VBNO39.200.363.475.524.539.524.469.455.454.
VBAL39.185.344.449.503.522.531.504.516.518.
%IMP0%8%5%5%4%3%-1%-7%-13%-14%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-27.-33.-46.-67.-90.-90.-94.-76.-48.-39.
AVAL-26.-31.-45.-65.-87.-87.-88.-71.-47.-31.
%IMP4%6%2%3%3%3%6%7%2%21%
GFNO-17.-14.3.-10.-16.-26.-32.-24.12.20.
GFAL-13.-18.-27.-50.-53.-28.-20.-2.11.21.
%IMP24%-29%-800%-300%-231%-8%37%92%8%-5%
SHNO-9.-7.-12.-23.-40.-38.-44.-32.-11.-6.
SHAL-9.-8.-13.-24.-41.-40.-45.-33.-11.-5.
%IMP0%-14%-8%-4%-3%5%-2%-3%0%17%
DSNO-9.-7.-12.-23.-40.-50.-75.-63.-42.-37.
DSAL-9.-8.-13.-24.-41.-51.-76.-63.-41.-36.
%IMP0%-14%-8%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%2%3%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 90 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN20.6080.18104.5195.5 Closest approach to Cayo Largo, Cuba
AVAL21.0581.3693.067.6 Closest approach to Cayo Largo, Cuba
%IMP79%65%
GFNO20.3386.9171.0546.0 Isla Cozumel, Quintana Roo, Mexico
GFAL21.6383.75106.0202.0 Cayos de San Felipe, Cuba
%IMP16%63%
VBNO21.5086.7345.0509.6 Cabo Catoche, Quintana Roo, Mexico
VBAL21.0586.8044.5520.1 Puerto Juarez, Quintana Roo, Mexico
%IMP-1%-2%
04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 95 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN21.5578.74116.5261.0 Near Jucaro, Ciego de Avila, Cuba
AVAL21.6379.50102.0182.9 Tunas de Zaza, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
%IMP39%30%
GFNO22.3585.3194.0423.6 Approach to Cabo de S. Antonio, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL22.6982.37113.0136.9 Surgidero de Batabano, La Habana, Cuba
%IMP-1700%68%
VBNO24.1683.37104.5318.6 Approach to Bahia Honda, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
VBAL24.2983.58106.0343.9 Approach to Bahia Honda, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP-16%-8%
05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 108 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN22.0078.00120.0255.5 Gordon's, Long Island, Bahamas
AVAL23.4275.74115.0249.6 Rolletown, Great Exuma, Bahamas
%IMP28%2%
GFNO24.6081.40108.0345.5 Big Pine Key, FL
GFAL24.2080.60120.0263.6
%IMP-200%24%
VBNO24.4481.68111.0372.7 Key West, FL
VBAL24.7481.46114.0353.1 Summerland Key, FL
%IMP-33%5%
05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 114 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN22.0078.00120.0411.3 Gordon's, Long Island, Bahamas
AVAL24.1274.51118.5237.9 Rocky Point, San Salvador, Bahamas
%IMP25%42%
GFNO26.6879.05115.5300.3 West End, Grand Bahama, Bahamas
GFAL24.2080.60120.0444.1
%IMP-300%-48%
VBNO25.0078.80120.0245.3
VBAL25.1079.50120.0313.3
%IMP0%-28%


Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 November 2001 0000 UTC
Tropical Storm Michelle.


Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 01 November 2001 0000 UTC. The best track is shown in black.


Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 01 November 2001 0000 UTC.


Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 01 November 2001 0000 UTC.