Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
Hurricane Lili.


Quicktime movie of DLM wind analyses
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data initial increments


Assessments for each forecast time at
September 25, 2002 18 Z
September 26, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
September 27, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
September 28, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
September 29, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
September 30, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
October 01, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
October 02, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
October 03, 2002 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z

Figure 1a. Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models for the Hurricane Lili synoptic surveillance mission.

Figure 1b. Track forecast improvements for the GFS and GFDL models for the the Hurricane Lili synoptic surveillance mission.

(a)
(b)

Figure 2. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lili at Isle of Youth, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.

(a)
(b)

Figure 3. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lili at Pinar del Rio, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.

(a)
(b)

Figure 4. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lili near Intracoastal City, LA, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.


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