Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
Hurricane Lili.
Quicktime movie of DLM wind analyses
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
initial
increments
Assessments for each forecast time at
September 25, 2002 | | |
| 18 Z
|
September 26, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
| 18 Z
|
September 27, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
| 18 Z
|
September 28, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
| 18 Z
|
September 29, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
| 18 Z
|
September 30, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
| 18 Z
|
October 01, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
| 18 Z
|
October 02, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
| 18 Z
|
October 03, 2002
| 00 Z
| 06 Z
| 12 Z
|
|
Figure 1a.
Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and
the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models for
the Hurricane Lili synoptic surveillance mission.
Figure 1b.
Track forecast improvements for the GFS and GFDL
models for the the Hurricane Lili synoptic surveillance mission.
(a)
(b)
Figure 2.
Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lili at Isle of
Youth, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the
no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the
GFS and GFDL models.
(a)
(b)
Figure 3.
Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lili at Pinar
del Rio, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the
no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the
GFS and GFDL models.
(a)
(b)
Figure 4.
Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lili near
Intracoastal City, LA, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions
for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs
for the GFS and GFDL models.
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