Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 October 2002 0000 UTC
Lili.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN24.102.111.
AVNO45.72.29.
%IMP-88%29%74%
GFNO63.101.114.
GFAL45.145.142.
%IMP29%-44%-25%
AVNN-38.-11.-2.
AVNO-32.-13.-6.
%IMP16%-18%-200%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
GFNO15.8.12.
GFAL9.11.12.
%IMP40%-38%0%
SHNO53.87.92.
SHIP52.84.86.
%IMP2%3%7%
DSNO53.29.15.
DSHP52.29.15.
%IMP2%0%0%

Landfall forecasts

03/1300 UTC 29.5N 92.2W near Intracoastal City, LA 13 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN29.6092.1516.012.1 Cheniere au Tigre, LA
AVAL29.5591.7213.046.7 Ellerslie, LA
%IMP100%-286%
GFNO29.5192.2916.58.8 Cheniere au Tigre, LA
GFAL29.5692.5417.533.5 Pecan Island, LA
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 October 2002 0000 UTC (Hurricane Lili).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 03 October 2002 0000 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 03 October 2002 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The triangles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 4. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 October 2002 0000 UTC. The triangles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 5. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 October 2002 0000 UTC.