Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
30 September 2002 1800 UTC
Lili.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 21. | 53. | 46. | 49. | 156. | 253. | 370. |
| AVNO | 10. | 11. | 30. | 45. | 177. | 301. | 469. |
| %IMP | 52% | 79% | 35% | 8% | -13% | -19% | -27%
|
| GFNO | 43. | 63. | 102. | 91. | 73. | 77. | 129.
| GFAL | 25. | 67. | 82. | 87. | 22. | 77. | 158.
| %IMP | 42% | -6% | 20% | 4% | 70% | 0% | -22%
|
| AVNN | -40. | -57. | -64. | -86. | -68. | -22. | 3. |
| AVNO | -39. | -54. | -61. | -84. | -68. | -22. | 8. |
| %IMP | 3% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | -167%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | 22. | -2. | -3. | -15. | 0. | 31. | 15.
| GFAL | 18. | -7. | -9. | -22. | -2. | 7. | 9.
| %IMP | 18% | -250% | -200% | -47% | und% | 77% | 40%
|
| SHNO | -2. | -8. | -11. | -24. | -6. | 40. | 67. |
| SHIP | -3. | -11. | -16. | -31. | -14. | 31. | 57. |
| %IMP | -50% | -38% | -45% | -29% | -133% | 23% | 15%
|
| DSNO | -2. | -13. | -16. | -29. | -11. | 35. | 21. |
| DSHP | -3. | -16. | -21. | -36. | -19. | 26. | 18. |
| %IMP | -50% | -23% | -31% | -24% | -73% | 26% | 14%
| | ||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.49 | 82.68 | 17.0 | 39.3 | Punta del Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.55 | 82.92 | 16.5 | 29.0 | Punta del Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | und% | 26%
|
| GFNO | 21.39 | 83.05 | 18.5 | 11.3 | Punta del Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| GFAL | 21.19 | 83.17 | 17.5 | 21.4 | Punta del Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | 67% | -89%
|
|
01/1400 UTC 22.1N 84.0W Pinar del Rio, Cuba 20 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.18 | 83.70 | 23.0 | 32.1 | Near San Juan y Martinez, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVAL | 22.19 | 83.90 | 21.5 | 14.3 | Galafre, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 50% | 55%
|
| GFNO | 22.01 | 84.28 | 25.0 | 30.5 | La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFAL | 21.86 | 84.49 | 24.5 | 98.5 | Cabo Corrientes, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 10% | -223%
|
03/1300 UTC 29.5N 92.2W near Intracoastal City, LA 67 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.77 | 93.63 | 80.0 | 141.3 | Johnsons Bayou, LA
| AVAL | 29.70 | 94.03 | 83.0 | 178.2 | Sabine, TX
| %IMP | -31% | -26%
|
| GFNO | 29.57 | 92.65 | 70.5 | 44.2 | Pecan Island, LA
| GFAL | 29.65 | 92.81 | 68.5 | 61.3 | North Island, LA
| %IMP | 57% | -39%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 30 September 2002 1800 UTC (Hurricane Lili).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 30 September 2002 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 30 September 2002 1800 UTC.
