Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
Hurricane Lenny.

QuickTime movie of DLM wind analyses
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data initial increments

Assessments for each forecast time at
November 15, 1999 18 Z
November 16, 1999 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
November 17, 1999 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z


Figure 1a. Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models for the Hurricane Lenny synoptic surveillance missions.


Figure 1b. Track forecast improvements for the GFS and GFDL models for the the Hurricane Lenny synoptic surveillance missions.


(a)


(b)

Figure 2. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lenny at Western Isle of Youth, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.


(a)


(b)

Figure 3. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lenny at Batabano, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.


(a)


(b)

Figure 4. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lenny at Key West, FL, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.


(a)


(b)

Figure 5. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Lenny at Cape Sable, FL, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.