Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
16 November 1999 0600 UTC
LENNY.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model
forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data
increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 218. | 255. | 368. | 322. | 308. | 290. | 307. | 398. | 600. | 614.
| AVAL | 87. | 78. | 61. | 11. | 128. | 298. | 557. | 788. | 1044. | 1044.
| %IMP | 60% | 69% | 83% | 97% | 58% | -3% | -81% | -98% | -74% | -70%
|
| GFNO | 129. | 203. | 213. | 183. | 278. | 488. | 720. | 920. | 1266. | 1500.
| GFAL | 108. | 187. | 194. | 149. | 255. | 377. | 608. | 795. | 1134. | 1396.
| %IMP | 16% | 8% | 9% | 19% | 8% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 7%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -45. | -69. | -98. | -94. | -81. | -47. | -31. | -26. | -14. | -4.
| AVAL | -43. | -68. | -100. | -97. | -82. | -45. | -30. | -25. | -4. | 6.
| %IMP | 4% | 1% | -2% | -3% | -1% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 71% | -50%
|
| GFNO | 24. | 4. | -29. | -22. | -6. | 29. | 40. | 47. | 57. | 71.
| GFAL | 20. | 5. | -29. | -27. | -10. | 29. | 42. | 51. | 62. | 74.
| %IMP | 17% | -25% | 0% | -23% | -67% | 0% | -5% | -9% | -9% | -4%
|
| SHNO | -9. | -28. | -59. | -53. | -40. | -18. | -6. | -4. | 3. | 15.
| SHAL | -10. | -31. | -64. | -58. | -45. | -21. | -8. | -5. | 3. | 15.
| %IMP | -11% | -11% | -8% | -9% | -13% | -17% | -33% | -25% | 0% | 0%
|
| DSNO | -9. | -28. | -73. | -67. | -54. | -33. | -20. | -18. | -11. | 0.
| DSAL | -10. | -31. | -76. | -70. | -58. | -34. | -21. | -18. | -10. | 3.
| %IMP | -11% | -11% | -4% | -4% | -7% | -3% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 0%
| | ||||||||||
| 17/1800 UTC 17.4N 64.8W St. Croix, USVI 36 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 17.96 | 66.10 | 63.5 | 151.0 | Guayama, PR
| AVAL | 17.56 | 64.48 | 47.5 | 38.3 | Christiansted, St. Croix, USVI
| %IMP | 58% | 75%
|
| GFNO | 17.98 | 66.36 | 39.5 | 177.2 | Playa de Santa Isabel, PR
| GFAL | 18.15 | 65.44 | 45.5 | 107.4 | Vieques, Vieques, PR
| %IMP | -171% | 39%
|
|
18/1800 UTC 18.0N 63.3W St. Martin 60 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.23 | 64.96 | 79.0 | 221.9 | Near Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| AVAL | 18.33 | 63.31 | 53.5 | 36.7 | Prickly Pear Cays, Anguilla
| %IMP | 66% | 83%
|
| GFNO | 19.21 | 64.81 | 50.5 | 208.2 | Near Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| GFAL | 18.97 | 64.66 | 51.0 | 179.3 | Near Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| %IMP | 5% | 14%
|
|
19/0000 UTC 18.1N 63.1W Anguilla 66 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
|
| AVNN | 19.23 | 64.96 | 79.0 | 232.6 | Near Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| AVAL | 18.33 | 63.31 | 53.5 | 33.8 | The Valley, Anguilla
| %IMP | 4% | 85%
|
| GFNO | 19.21 | 64.81 | 50.5 | 218.2 | Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, USVI
| GFAL | 18.97 | 64.66 | 51.0 | 190.6 | Playa Grande, Vieques, PR
| %IMP | 3% | 13%
|
|
19/0600 UTC 18.0N 62.9W St. Barthelemy 72 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.23 | 64.96 | 79.0 | 256.4 | Near Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| AVAL | 18.33 | 63.31 | 53.5 | 56.7 | The Valley, Anguilla
| %IMP | -164% | 78%
|
| GFNO | 19.21 | 64.81 | 50.5 | 241.9 | Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, USVI
| GFAL | 18.97 | 64.66 | 51.0 | 214.5 | Playa Grande, Vieques, PR
| %IMP | 2% | 11%
|
|
20/0000 UTC 17.3N 61.8W Antigua 90 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.23 | 64.96 | 79.0 | 396.4 | Near Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| AVAL | 18.33 | 63.31 | 53.5 | 196.5 | The Valley, Anguilla
| %IMP | -241% | 50%
|
| GFNO | 19.21 | 64.81 | 50.5 | 382.0 | Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, USVI
| GFAL | 18.97 | 64.66 | 51.0 | 354.4 | Playa Grande, Vieques, PR
| %IMP | 1% | 7%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 16 November 1999 0600 UTC (Hurricane Lenny).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 16 November 1999 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 16 November 1999 0600 UTC.
Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 16 November 1999 0600 UTC.