Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
04 October 2000 0600 UTC
KEITH.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 84. | 157. | 183. | 340.
| AVAL | 71. | 129. | 82. | 150.
| %IMP | 15% | 18% | 55% | 56%
|
| GFNO | 136. | 310. | 369. | 462.
| GFAL | 105. | 259. | 268. | 314.
| %IMP | 23% | 16% | 27% | 32%
|
| VBNO | 35. | 108.
| VBAL | 44. | 122.
| %IMP | -26% | -13%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -19. | -43. | -59. | -8.
| AVAL | -16. | -39. | -54. | -7.
| %IMP | 16% | 9% | 8% | 13%
|
| GFNO | -10. | -39. | -56. | -5.
| GFAL | 0. | -34. | -50. | 13.
| %IMP | 100% | 13% | 11% | -160%
|
| SHNO | -7. | -26. | -34. | 23.
| SHAL | -6. | -24. | -32. | 26.
| %IMP | 14% | 8% | 6% | -13%
|
| DSNO | -7. | -26. | -34. | 23.
| DSAL | -6. | -24. | -32. | 26.
| %IMP | 14% | 8% | 6% | -13%
| | ||||||||||
| 05/1800 UTC 22.6N 97.9W 20 nm north of Tampico, Mexico 36 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.08 | 97.49 | 43.0 | 278.7 | Near Boca de Sandoval, Tamaulipas, MX
| AVAL | 23.33 | 97.76 | 40.5 | 82.4 | Near Los Lavaderos, Tamaulipas, MX
| %IMP | 36% | 70%
|
| GFNO | 26.46 | 97.26 | 74.5 | 433.7 | South Padre Island, TX
| GFAL | 25.08 | 97.72 | 52.5 | 276.1 | Boca de Sandoval, Tamaulipas, MX
| %IMP | 57% | 36%
|
| VBNO | 24.04 | 97.72 | 37.5 | 161.0 | Near La Pesca, Tamaulipas, MX
| VBAL | 23.78 | 97.20 | 24.5 | 149.3 | Near La Pesca, Tamaulipas, MX
| %IMP | -667% | 7%
| | ||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 04 October 2000 0600 UTC (Tropical Depression Keith).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 04 October 2000 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 04 October 2000 0600 UTC.
Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 04 October 2000 0600 UTC.