Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 October 2000 0000 UTC
KEITH.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 92. | 237. | 368. | 469. | 598. | 842. | 1023.
| AVAL | 15. | 91. | 102. | 152. | 267. | 396. | 646. |
| %IMP | 84% | 62% | 72% | 68% | 55% | 53% | 37%
|
| GFNO | 11. | 35.
| GFAL | 62. | 202.
| %IMP | -464% | -477%
|
| VBNO | 25. | 92. | 206. | 367. | 555. | 785. | 1237. |
| VBAL | 22. | 64. | 191. | 386. | 599. | 841. | 1310. |
| %IMP | 12% | 30% | 7% | -5% | -8% | -7% | -6%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -6. | -7. | -9. | -41. | -51. | -24. | -2. |
| AVAL | -3. | -2. | -9. | -37. | -46. | -21. | 9. |
| %IMP | 50% | 71% | 0% | 10% | 10% | 13% | -350%
|
| GFNO | 7. | 11.
| GFAL | 2. | -1.
| %IMP | 71% | 91%
|
| SHNO | 26. | 30. | 20. | -2. | -12. | 23. | 51. |
| SHAL | 27. | 30. | 20. | -2. | -12. | 22. | 50. |
| %IMP | -4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 2%
|
| DSNO | 26. | 9. | -6. | -26. | -37. | -2. | 27. |
| DSAL | 27. | 10. | -6. | -26. | -37. | -3. | 26. |
| %IMP | -4% | -11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -50% | 4%
| | ||||||||||
| 03/0300 UTC 17.9N 88.2W 25 nm north of Belize City, Belize 3 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.80 | 88.10 | 10.0 | 149.9 | Near Calderitas, Quintana Roo, Mexico
| AVAL | 18.06 | 88.61 | 8.0 | 44.4 | Near Spanish Point, Corozal, Belize
| %IMP | 33% | 70%
|
| GFNO | 17.99 | 88.15 | 3.5 | 47.1 | Spanish Point, Corozal, Belize
| GFAL | 17.89 | 88.20 | 7.5 | 1.1 | Maskall, Belize, Belize
| %IMP | -800% | 98%
|
| VBNO | 18.02 | 88.14 | 2.5 | 39.8 | Spanish Point, Corozal, Belize
| VBAL | 18.03 | 88.11 | 2.5 | 39.8 | Spanish Point, Corozal, Belize
| %IMP | 0% | 0%
|
|
| 05/1800 UTC 22.6N 97.9W 20 nm north of Tampico, Mexico 66 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.06 | 90.77 | 90.5 | 1012.3 | Lake Pelto, LA
| AVAL | 28.60 | 95.79 | 93.5 | 907.5 | Near Freeport, TX
| %IMP | -900% | 10%
|
| GFNO | 25.67 | 97.17 | 84.5 | 634.9 | Near Playa Lauro Villar, Tamaulipas, MX
| GFAL | dissipated
| %IMP
|
| VBNO | 29.78 | 93.66 | 76.5 | 408.6 | Hamilton Lake, LA
| VBAL | 29.74 | 93.29 | 75.0 | 471.1 | Cameron, LA
| %IMP | 0% | -15%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 October 2000 0000 UTC (Tropical Storm Keith).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 03 October 2000 0000 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 03 October 2000 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 4. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 October 2000 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
