Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
24 August 2005 1800 UTC
Katrina.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 51 | 141 | 256 | 380 | 481 | 602 | 730 | 1003 | 1102 | 1157
| AVNO | 55 | 102 | 233 | 370 | 439 | 577 | 735 | 981 | 1055 | 1084
| %IMP | 8% | 28% | 9% | 3% | 9% | 4% | -1% | 7% | 2% | 6%
|
| GFNO | 90 | 151 | 222 | 283 | 331 | 367 | 388 | 456 | 476 | 470
| GFDL | 75 | 166 | 246 | 272 | 312 | 325 | 333 | 394 | 383 | 352
| %IMP | 17% | -10% | -11% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 20% | 25%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -27 | -36 | -41 | -59 | -67 | -71 | -94 | -122 | -97 | -49
| AVNO | -27 | -37 | -42 | -60 | -68 | -72 | -94 | -119 | -96 | -49
| %IMP | 0% | -3% | -2% | -2% | -1% | -1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 0%
|
| GFNO | 9 | 21 | 11 | 8 | -6 | -9 | -31 | -56 | -37 | -39
| GFDL | 14 | 27 | 35 | 33 | 12 | 13 | -16 | -42 | -24 | -9
| %IMP | -56% | -29% | -218% | -313% | -100% | -44% | 48% | 25% | 35% | 77%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 25/2230 UTC 26.0N 80.1W at Broward/Miami-Dade County line, FL 28.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.84 | 80.04 | 61.0 | 93.5 | Riviera Beach, FL
| AVNO | 26.20 | 80.10 | 60.0 | 22.2 | Oakland Park, FL
| %IMP | 3% | 76%
|
| GFNO | 25.23 | 80.45 | 55.5 | 92.5 | Key Largo, FL
| GFDL | 24.98 | 80.57 | 55.5 | 122.7 | Plantation Key, FL
| %IMP | 0% | -33%
|
|
29/1110 UTC 29.3N 89.6W Near Buras, LA 113.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | 29.58 | 85.06 | 106.0 | 440.4 | Apalachicola, FL
| GFDL | 30.25 | 85.98 | 115.0 | 364.7 | Panama City, FL
| %IMP | 71% | 17%
|
29/1445 UTC 30.2N 89.6W Near LA/MS border 116.75 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | 29.58 | 85.06 | 106.0 | 442.7 | Apalachicola, FL
| GFDL | 30.25 | 85.98 | 115.0 | 347.6 | Panama City, FL
| %IMP | 84% | 21%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 24 August 2005 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Katrina).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 24 August 2005 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 August 2005 1800 UTC.
