Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
30 September 2000 1800 UTC
JOYCE.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 40. | 45. | 89.
| AVAL | 178. | 181. | 292.
| %IMP | -345% | -302% | -228%
|
| GFNO | 49. | 44. | 113.
| GFAL | 86. | 164. | 265.
| %IMP | -76% | -273% | -98%
|
| VBNO | 65. | 87. | 70.
| VBAL | 69. | 131. | 138.
| %IMP | -6% | -51% | -97%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -9. | -9. | -5.
| AVAL | -8. | -2. | 2.
| %IMP | 11% | 78% | 60%
|
| GFNO | 32. | 30. | 49.
| GFAL | 13. | 24. | 48.
| %IMP | 59% | 20% | 2%
|
| SHNO | -3. | 7. | 19.
| SHAL | -1. | 10. | 23.
| %IMP | 67% | -43% | -21%
|
| DSNO | -3. | 7. | 19.
| DSAL | -1. | 10. | 23.
| %IMP | 67% | -43% | -21%
| | ||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 30 September 2000 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Joyce).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 30 September 2000 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 30 September 2000 1800 UTC.
