Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
20 October 1999 0600 UTC
JOSE.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model
forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data
increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 100. | 124. | 176. | 231. | 348. | 482. | 756.
| AVAL | 108. | 96. | 85. | 139. | 246. | 277. | 464.
| %IMP | -8% | 23% | 52% | 40% | 29% | 43% | 39%
|
| GFNO | 34. | 100. | 235. | 412. | 648. | 868. | 1407.
| GFAL | 54. | 99. | 193. | 299. | 469. | 661. | 1140.
| %IMP | -59% | 1% | 18% | 27% | 28% | 24% | 19%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -46. | -34. | -24. | -19. | -17. | -16. | -18.
| AVAL | -45. | -36. | -22. | -17. | -17. | -16. | -18.
| %IMP | 2% | -6% | 8% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0%
|
| GFNO | 11. | 39. | 51. | 59. | 52. | 55. | 43.
| GFAL | 12. | 32. | 47. | 55. | 60. | 55. | 48.
| %IMP | -9% | 18% | 8% | 7% | -15% | 0% | -12%
|
| SHNO | 6. | 23. | 34. | 39. | 37. | 31. | 24. | 19. | 13. | 23.
| SHAL | 4. | 19. | 28. | 31. | 27. | 21. | 13. | 8. | 2. | 12.
| %IMP | 33% | 17% | 18% | 21% | 27% | 32% | 46% | 58% | 85% | 48%
|
| DSNO | 6. | 23. | 34. | 39. | 37. | 31. | 24. | 19. | 13. | 23.
| DSAL | 4. | 19. | 28. | 31. | 27. | 21. | 13. | 8. | 2. | 12.
| %IMP | 33% | 17% | 18% | 21% | 27% | 32% | 46% | 58% | 85% | 48%
| | ||||||||||
| 20/1600 UTC 17.1N 61.7W Antigua 10 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 17.49 | 61.90 | 8.0 | 48.2 | Barbuda
| AVAL | 16.98 | 61.87 | 6.0 | 22.4 | Falmouth, Antigua
| %IMP | -100% | 54%
|
| GFNO | 16.98 | 61.88 | 9.0 | 23.3 | Falmouth, Antigua
| GFAL | 16.98 | 61.89 | 8.5 | 24.2 | Falmouth, Antigua
| %IMP | -50% | -4%
|
|
|
21/1105 UTC 18.4N 64.6W Tortola 29.08 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.80 | 64.19 | 22.0 | 62.0 | Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| AVAL | 18.21 | 65.08 | 27.0 | 54.9 | St. John, USVI
| %IMP | 71% | 11%
|
| GFNO | 18.08 | 63.09 | 24.0 | 163.2 | Marigot, St. Martin
| GFAL | 18.63 | 64.42 | 23.5 | 32.8 | Anegada, British Virgin Islands
| %IMP | -10% | 80%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 20 October 1999 0600 UTC (Hurricane Jose).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 20 October 1999 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 20 October 1999 0600 UTC.
Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 20 October 1999 0600 UTC.