Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 15 | 62 | 39 | 42 | 21 | 46 | 108 | 136 | 94 | 89
| AVNO | 15 | 76 | 78 | 113 | 157 | 181 | 266 | 293 | 402 | 394
| %IMP | 0% | -23% | -100% | -169% | -648% | -293% | -146% | -315% | -328% | -343%
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| GFNO | 25 | 33 | 56 | 146 | 239 | 313 | 471 | 546 | 575 | 492
| GFDL | 24 | 11 | 74 | 135 | 178 | 193 | 297 | 344 | 380 | 267
| %IMP | 4% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 26% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 34% | 46%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -95 | -75 | -60 | -69 | -61 | -57 | -35 | -50 | -45 | -44
| AVNO | -84 | -73 | -62 | -60 | -66 | -70 | -48 | -48 | -45 | -77
| %IMP | 12% | 3% | -3% | 13% | -8% | -23% | -37% | 2% | 0% | -75%
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| GFNO | -36 | -17 | -2 | -14 | -24 | -28 | -15 | -32 | -62 | -73
| GFDL | -39 | -34 | -10 | -19 | -26 | -29 | -12 | -25 | -29 | -54
| %IMP | -8% | -100% | -400% | -36% | -8% | -4% | 20% | 22% | 53% | 26%
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12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 32.25 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 18.57 | 81.91 | 32.0 | 56.6 | Offshore Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| AVNO | 19.22 | 81.41 | 28.5 | 36.8 | Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| %IMP | -1400% | 35%
|
| GFNO | 19.13 | 81.53 | 31.5 | 25.7 | Georgetown, Grand Cayman island
| GFDL | 19.28 | 81.40 | 32.5 | 43.1 | Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| %IMP | 67% | -68%
|
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14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 67.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.71 | 85.31 | 65.5 | 11.4 | Offshore La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.87 | 84.33 | 56.5 | 91.7 | La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | -600% | -704%
|
| GFNO | 22.16 | 83.87 | 54.5 | 146.3 | Galafre, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFDL | 21.91 | 84.12 | 55.0 | 113.8 | La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 4% | 22%
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 121.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 30.08 | 84.24 | 99.0 | 351.9 | St. Marks, FL
| %IMP |
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| GFNO | 29.80 | 84.69 | 95.5 | 312.0 | Carrabelle, FL
| GFDL | 29.75 | 85.27 | 105.5 | 173.8 | Port St. Joe, FL
| %IMP | 37% | 44%
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