Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 39 | 24 | 46 | 25 | 39 | 99 | 158 | 241 | 249 | 273
| AVNO | 54 | 84 | 124 | 167 | 210 | 300 | 429 | 542 | 707 | 817
| %IMP | -38% | -250% | -170% | -568% | -438% | -203% | -172% | -125% | -184% | -199%
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| GFNO | 15 | 35 | 0 | 39 | 126 | 223 | 321 | 452 | 525 | 515
| GFDL | 24 | 35 | 62 | 154 | 241 | 362 | 520 | 649 | 759 | 775
| %IMP | -60% | 0% | und% | -295% | -91% | -62% | -62% | -44% | -45% | -50%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -77 | -89 | -76 | -67 | -63 | -62 | -52 | -42 | -42 | -47
| AVNO | -60 | -84 | -62 | -69 | -71 | -70 | -62 | -71 | -63 | -67
| %IMP | 22% | 6% | 18% | -3% | -13% | -13% | -19% | -69% | -50% | -43%
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| GFNO | -13 | -25 | -11 | -18 | -17 | -23 | -16 | -14 | -30 | -70
| GFDL | -21 | -25 | -5 | -11 | -20 | -18 | -15 | -32 | -50 | -74
| %IMP | -62% | 0% | 55% | 39% | -18% | 22% | 6% | -129% | -67% | -6%
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11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 3.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 17.75 | 77.26 | 5.5 | 39.4 | Salt River, Jamaica
| AVNO | 17.82 | 77.74 | 8.5 | 73.8 | Alligator Pond, Jamaica
| %IMP | -140% | -87%
|
| GFNO | 17.45 | 77.19 | 3.5 | 5.7 | Near Brokenbank, Jamaica
| GFDL | 17.50 | 77.21 | 4.5 | 11.2 | Near Brokenbank, Jamaica
| %IMP | und% | -96%
|
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12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 38.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.72 | 81.83 | 40.5 | 40.1 | Near Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| AVNO | 19.75 | 80.77 | 34.5 | 121.6 | Near Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| %IMP | -114% | -203%
|
| GFNO | 19.03 | 81.59 | 39.0 | 17.3 | Near Georgetown, Grand Cayman island
| GFDL | 19.46 | 80.99 | 39.0 | 82.1 | Grand Cayman Island
| %IMP | 0% | -375
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 73.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.90 | 84.20 | 73.0 | 105.5 | La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.45 | 82.75 | 54.5 | 254.6 | La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | und% | -141%
|
| GFNO | 21.99 | 84.01 | 63.0 | 126.9 | Sandino, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFDL | 21.53 | 82.65 | 54.5 | 264.1 | la Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | -85% | -108%
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16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 127.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 28.38 | 82.64 | 99.0 | 548.3 | New Port Richey, FL
| %IMP |
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| GFNO | 29.83 | 84.62 | 104.5 | 318.2 | Carrabelle, FL
| GFDL | 29.81 | 83.59 | 96.5 | 416.9 | Steinhatchee, FL
| %IMP | -35% | -31%
| |