Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
10 September 2004 1800 UTC
Ivan.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 21 | 44 | 46 | 43 | 64 | 167 | 248 | 438 | 561 | 744
| AVNO | 61 | 122 | 161 | 232 | 295 | 442 | 584 | 802 | 933 | 1115
| %IMP | -190% | -177% | -250% | -440% | -361% | -165% | -135% | -83% | -66% | -50%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL
| %IMP
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -80 | -97 | -80 | -61 | -73 | -73 | -70 | -63 | -60 | -66
| AVNO | -76 | -87 | -68 | -58 | -86 | -80 | -76 | -60 | -65 | -63
| %IMP | 5% | 10% | 15% | 5% | -18% | -10% | -9% | 5% | -8% | 5%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL
| %IMP
|
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 9.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 17.65 | 77.86 | 16.5 | 75.2 | Near Black River, Jamaica
| AVNO | 17.75 | 77.15 | 11.5 | 39.2 | Salt River, Jamaica
| %IMP | 71% | 48%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 17.70 | 77.79 | 11.5 | 70.8 | Alligator Pond, Jamaica
| %IMP |
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 44.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.93 | 81.45 | 46.0 | 6.2 | Near Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| AVNO | 20.27 | 80.26 | 44.0 | 200.0 | Near Cayman Brac
| %IMP | 86% | -3126%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 19.72 | 80.66 | 42.0 | 126.7 | Near Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| %IMP |
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 79.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.16 | 83.64 | 73.0 | 168.7 | San Juan y Martines, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.58 | 81.59 | 55.5 | 373.0 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | -292% | -121%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 22.66 | 82.68 | 64.5 | 280.3 | Artemisa, La Habana, Cuba
| %IMP |
|
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 133.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.16 | 82.83 | 110.0 | 502.8 | Cedar Key, FL
| AVNO | 25.60 | 81.26 | 83.0 | 828.4 | Near Chokoloskee, FL
| %IMP | -117% | -65%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 29.47 | 83.28 | 99.5 | 452.6 | Suwannee, FL
| %IMP |
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 10 September 2004 1800 UTC (Hurricane Ivan).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 10 September 2004 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 September 2004 1800 UTC.
