Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
10 September 2004 0600 UTC
Ivan.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 88 | 139 | 200 | 238 | 322 | 412 | 512 | 573 | 783 | 881
| AVNO | 25 | 85 | 94 | 138 | 214 | 341 | 500 | 606 | 802 | 918
| %IMP | 72% | 59% | 43% | 42% | 34% | 17% | 2% | -6% | -2% | -4%
|
| GFNO | 24 | 85 | 111 | 183 | 266 | 357 | 499 | 565 | 694 | 741
| GFDL | 33 | 42 | 105 | 175 | 247 | 343 | 484 | 547 | 701 | 738
| %IMP | -38% | 51% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 3% | -1% | 0%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -75 | -79 | -91 | -78 | -76 | -89 | -86 | -90 | -63 | -65
| AVNO | -60 | -66 | -90 | -75 | -65 | -88 | -80 | -84 | -67 | -66
| %IMP | 20% | 16% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 1% | 7% | 7% | -6% | -1%
|
| GFNO | -7 | -6 | -30 | -23 | -10 | -29 | -37 | -48 | -39 | -34
| GFDL | -11 | -11 | -31 | -17 | -12 | -29 | -33 | -43 | -37 | -44
| %IMP | -57% | -83% | -3% | 26% | -20% | 0% | 11% | 10% | 5% | -29%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 21.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 17.86 | 76.35 | 23.5 | 103.5 | Morant Bay, Jamaica
| AVNO | 17.88 | 76.93 | 22.5 | 60.5 | Kingston, Jamaica
| %IMP | 40% | 42%
|
| GFNO | 17.67 | 77.25 | 28.5 | 30.5 | Salt River, Jamaica
| GFDL | 17.83 | 77.67 | 30.0 | 69.0 | Alligator Pond, Jamaica
| %IMP | -20% | -126%
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 56.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 20.92 | 79.68 | 61.0 | 294.1 | Near Cayo Breton, Cuba
| AVNO | 19.98 | 80.25 | 57.0 | 177.6 | Near Cayman Brac
| %IMP | 84% | 40%
|
| GFNO | 20.47 | 80.07 | 55.0 | 229.8 | Near Cayo Breton, Cuba
| GFDL | 20.35 | 80.15 | 55.5 | 214.3 | Near Cayman Brac
| %IMP | 40% | 7%
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 91.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.85 | 80.19 | 70.0 | 517.2 | Trinidad, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| AVNO | 22.10 | 81.20 | 72.0 | 414.7 | Near Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
| %IMP | 10% | 20%
|
| GFNO | 22.18 | 81.55 | 68.5 | 379.9 | Near Jaguey Grande, Matanzas, Cuba
| GFDL | 21.71 | 81.33 | 66.5 | 399.5 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | -9% | -5%
|
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 145.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.12 | 81.07 | 94.0 | 877.6 | Flamingo, FL
| AVNO | 25.68 | 81.28 | 93.5 | 821.2 | Chokoloskee, FL
| %IMP | -1% | 6%
|
| GFNO | 28.21 | 82.75 | 104.0 | 546.2 | Beacon Square, FL
| GFDL | 28.70 | 82.51 | 107.0 | 547.4 | Spring Hill, FL
| %IMP | 7% | 0%
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 10 September 2004 0600 UTC (Hurricane Ivan).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 10 September 2004 0600 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 September 2004 0600 UTC.
