Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 September 2004 1800 UTC
Ivan.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 25 | 88 | 142 | 200 | 206 | 304 | 379 | 512 | 614 | 743
| AVNO | 100 | 145 | 196 | 231 | 305 | 432 | 541 | 705 | 865 | 1100
| %IMP | -200% | -65% | -38% | -16% | -48% | -42% | -43% | -38% | -41% | -48%
|
| GFNO | 25 | 15 | 56 | 67 | 133 | 217 | 307 | 430 | 497 | 601
| GFDL | 49 | 55 | 67 | 88 | 186 | 309 | 435 | 558 | 640 | 782
| %IMP | -96% | -267% | -20% | -31% | -40% | -42% | 42% | -30% | -29% | -30%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -82 | -77 | -81 | -85 | -81 | -76 | -94 | -90 | -87 | -70
| AVNO | -70 | -65 | -81 | -98 | -80 | -79 | -93 | -94 | -97 | -69
| %IMP | 15% | 16% | 0% | -15% | 1% | -4% | 1% | -4% | -11% | 2%
|
| GFNO | -19 | -1 | -25 | -30 | -19 | -9 | -31 | -39 | -40 | -38
| GFDL | -12 | -5 | -21 | -35 | -22 | -14 | -33 | -37 | -52 | -41
| %IMP | 37% | -400% | 16% | -17% | -16% | -56% | -6% | 5% | -30% | -8%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 33.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 17.88 | 76.26 | 34.5 | 112.9 | Golden Grove, Jamaica
| AVNO | 18.43 | 76.16 | 27.5 | 158.7 | Near Boston Bay, Jamaica
| %IMP | -500% | -41%
|
| GFNO | 17.68 | 77.21 | 33.0 | 31.1 | Salt River, Jamaica
| GFDL | 17.79 | 77.15 | 32.5 | 43.7 | Salt River, Jamaica
| %IMP | -100% | -41%
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 68.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 20.83 | 79.88 | 70.5 | 273.2 | Near Cayo Breton, Cuba
| AVNO | 20.33 | 78.79 | 53.0 | 325.1 | Near Santa Cruz del Sur, Camaguey, Cuba
| %IMP | -578% | -19%
|
| GFNO | 19.82 | 80.62 | 62.0 | 137.7 | Near Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| GFDL | 20.58 | 80.12 | 65.0 | 235.3 | Near Cayo Breton, Cuba
| %IMP | 48% | -71%
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 103.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.08 | 80.75 | 83.0 | 460.7 | Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.61 | 79.54 | 66.0 | 584.5 | Near Sancti Spiritus, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| %IMP | -85% | -27%
|
| GFNO | 22.65 | 82.55 | 85.0 | 292.4 | Alquizar, La Habana, Cuba
| GFDL | 22.10 | 81.04 | 75.5 | 431.1 | Cenfuegos, Cienguegos, Cuba
| %IMP | -53% | -47%
|
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 157.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.71 | 80.98 | 100.5 | 915.1 | Marathon, FL
| AVNO | 25.22 | 80.45 | 92.5 | 918.2 | Key Largo, FL
| %IMP | -14% | 0%
|
| GFNO | 27.84 | 83.00 | 118.5 | 543.5 | Clearwater, FL
| GFDL | 24.58 | 81.66 | 92.5 | 816.9 | Key West, FL
| %IMP | -68% | -50%
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 September 2004 1800 UTC (Hurricane Ivan).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 September 2004 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2004 1800 UTC.
