Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 September 2004 0600 UTC
Ivan.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 22 | 25 | 88 | 193 | 262 | 364 | 543 | 638 | 783 | 899
| AVNO | 65 | 58 | 101 | 167 | 172 | 271 | 415 | 566 | 739 | 854
| %IMP | -195% | -132% | -15% | 13% | 34% | 26% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL
| %IMP
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -92 | -85 | -84 | -87 | -99 | -93 | -84 | -98 | -94 | -96
| AVNO | -81 | -72 | -62 | -70 | -93 | -83 | -83 | -89 | -90 | -88
| %IMP | 12% | 15% | 26% | 20% | 6% | 11% | 1% | 9% | 4% | 8%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL
| %IMP
|
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 45.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.69 | 76.79 | 64.5 | 149.7 | Near Port Maria, Jamaica
| AVNO | 18.17 | 76.33 | 49.0 | 126.7 | Boston Bay, Jamaica
| %IMP | 82% | 15%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 17.92 | 76.20 | 40.0 | 120.6 | Golden Grove, Jamaica
| %IMP |
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 80.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.90 | 77.16 | 78.0 | 468.2 | Near Bartolome Maso, Granma, Cuba
| AVNO | 20.97 | 78.73 | 82.5 | 369.6 | Near Vertientes, Camaguey, Cuba
| %IMP | 44% | 21%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 22.17 | 81.13 | 91.5 | 365.3 | Near Jaguey Grande, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP |
|
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 115.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 20.74 | 77.33 | 82.5 | 822.0 | Jobabo, Las Tunas, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.62 | 78.88 | 87.5 | 652.6 | Colorado, Ciego de Avila, Cuba
| %IMP | 15% | 21%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 22.17 | 81.13 | 91.5 | 422.7 | Near Jaguey Grande, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP |
|
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 169.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFDL | 24.62 | 81.51 | 107.5 | 884.0 | Big Pine Key, FL
| %IMP |
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 September 2004 0600 UTC (Hurricane Ivan).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 September 2004 0600 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2004 0600 UTC.
