Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 64 | 70 | 91 | 164 | 286 | 354 | 562 | 663 | 752 | 873
| AVNO | 46 | 91 | 202 | 211 | 244 | 290 | 421 | 575 | 730 | 904
| %IMP | 28% | -30% | -122% | -29% | 15% | 18% | 25% | 13% | 3% | -4%
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| GFNO | 70 | 157 | 257 | 259 | 311 | 367 | 435 | 578 | 766 | 944
| GFDL | 78 | 179 | 304 | 285 | 322 | 355 | 437 | 610 | 804 | 996
| %IMP | -11% | -14% | -18% | -10% | -4% | 3% | 0% | -6% | -5% | -6%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -100 | -89 | -85 | -91 | -80 | -104 | -82 | -94 | -94 | -94
| AVNO | -85 | -72 | -70 | -85 | -75 | -97 | -87 | -90 | -89 | -88
| %IMP | 16% | 19% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 7% | -6% | 4% | 5% | 6%
|
| GFNO | -18 | 5 | 2 | -15 | -11 | -48 | -44 | -45 | -49 | -52
| GFDL | -14 | -2 | -4 | -27 | -15 | -48 | -44 | -45 | -49 | -50
| %IMP | 22% | 60% | -100% | -80% | -36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4%
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11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 51.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 18.96 | 76.29 | 66.0 | 198.2 | Offshore Annotto Bay, Jamaica
| AVNO | 18.72 | 75.86 | 42.0 | 203.8 | Near Buff Bay, Jamaica
| %IMP | 34% | -3%
|
| GFNO | 18.16 | 74.61 | 33.5 | 286.7 | Grosse Chaudiere, Haiti
| GFDL | 18.29 | 74.49 | 32.0 | 303.2 | Carcasse, Haiti
| %IMP | -8% | -6%
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 86.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.98 | 76.32 | 78.0 | 555.8 | Bellaire, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
| AVNO | 19.82 | 77.73 | 60.5 | 408.2 | Near Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| %IMP | -212% | 27%
|
| GFNO | 19.86 | 77.41 | 51.5 | 441.7 | Near Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| GFDL | 19.89 | 77.30 | 49.5 | 453.7 | Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| %IMP | -6% | -3%
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 121.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 20.00 | 76.10 | 84.0 | 963.5 | Santiago de Cuba, Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.29 | 78.47 | 80.5 | 697.2 | Vertientes, Camaguey, Cuba
| %IMP | -48% | -14%
|
| GFNO | 22.11 | 80.43 | 78.5 | 493.8 | Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
| GFDL | 22.14 | 80.36 | 79.5 | 501.2 | Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
| %IMP | 5% | -12%
|
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 175.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | 25.19 | 80.88 | 100.0 | 887.0 | Plantation Key, FL
| GFDL | 25.24 | 80.60 | 99.5 | 905.0 | Key Largo, FL
| %IMP | 12% | 0%
| |