Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
08 September 2004 1200 UTC
Ivan.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 43 | 55 | 74 | 78 | 125 | 165 | 224 | 290 | 438 | 501
| AVNO | 46 | 76 | 70 | 116 | 148 | 256 | 328 | 464 | 543 | 661
| %IMP | -7% | -38% | 5% | -49% | -18% | -55% | -46% | -60% | -24% | -32%
|
| GFNO | 55 | 148 | 212 | 283 | 259 | 289 | 344 | 428 | 571 | 742
| GFDL | 40 | 57 | 119 | 188 | 184 | 206 | 250 | 303 | 337 | 389
| %IMP | 21% | 67% | 44% | 34% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 29% | 41% | 48%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -83 | -98 | -87 | -83 | -84 | -75 | -93 | -87 | -97 | -91
| AVNO | -77 | -92 | -81 | -66 | -74 | -53 | -89 | -87 | -92 | -89
| %IMP | 7% | 6% | 7% | 20% | 12% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 2%
|
| GFNO | -18 | -16 | -4 | -6 | -28 | -18 | -49 | -44 | -50 | -57
| GFDL | -10 | -14 | -1 | 4 | -16 | -10 | -35 | -25 | -38 | -45
| %IMP | 44% | 12% | 75% | 33% | 43% | 44% | 29% | 43% | 24% | 21%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 63.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.02 | 76.27 | 66.5 | 120.1 | Hectors River, Jamaica
| AVNO | 18.24 | 76.24 | 76.5 | 137.9 | Boston Bay, Jamaica
| %IMP | -333% | -15%
|
| GFNO | 18.22 | 74.53 | 44.0 | 296.8 | Tiburon, Haiti
| GFDL | 17.88 | 76.23 | 51.0 | 115.7 | Golden Gove, Jamaica
| %IMP | 32% | 61%
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 98.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.56 | 79.27 | 107.0 | 376.6 | Near Sancti Spiritus, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| AVNO | 19.90 | 76.91 | 90.0 | 493.7 | Near Bartolome Maso, Granma, Cuba
| %IMP | 6% | -31%
|
| GFNO | 19.85 | 77.57 | 64.5 | 425.2 | Near Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| GFDL | 22.36 | 83.17 | 106.5 | 421.8 | Near Los Palacio, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 76% | 1%
|
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 133.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.56 | 79.27 | 107.0 | 612.6 | Near Sancti Spiritus, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| AVNO | 19.90 | 76.91 | 90.0 | 883.9 | Near Bartolome Maso, Granma, Cuba
| %IMP | -65% | -44%
|
| GFNO | 21.75 | 79.96 | 88.5 | 540.8 | Near Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| GFDL | 22.36 | 83.17 | 106.5 | 222.5 | Near Los Palacios, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 43% | 59%
|
|
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 192.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | 25.13 | 80.82 | 113.0 | 895.9 | Tavernier, FL
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 08 September 2004 1200 UTC (Hurricane Ivan).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 08 September 2004 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 08 September 2004 1200 UTC.
