Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 74 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 110 | 182 | 214 | 293 | 403 | 462
| AVNO | 11 | 34 | 89 | 85 | 179 | 258 | 275 | 344 | 532 | 728
| %IMP | 85% | 56% | -20% | -21% | -63% | -42% | -29% | -17% | -32% | -58%
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| GFNO | 62 | 164 | 224 | 317 | 339 | 376 | 435 | 555 | 704 | 907
| GFDL | 35 | 102 | 140 | 203 | 212 | 231 | 305 | 398 | 443 | 492
| %IMP | 44% | 38% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 39% | 30% | 28% | 37% | 56%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -81 | -102 | -93 | -84 | -83 | -81 | -101 | -92 | -90 | -100
| AVNO | -63 | -93 | -78 | -77 | -71 | -72 | -79 | -78 | -88 | -94
| %IMP | 22% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 14% | 11% | 22% | 15% | 2% | 6%
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| GFNO | -9 | -17 | -4 | -11 | -24 | -42 | -58 | -48 | -40 | -43
| GFDL | 3 | -8 | -3 | 1 | -1 | -20 | -28 | -24 | -35 | -42
| %IMP | 67% | 53% | 25% | 91% | 96% | 52% | 52% | 50% | 12% | 2%
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11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 69.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 18.21 | 76.32 | 75.0 | 129.5 | Boston Bay, Jamaica
| AVNO | 17.91 | 76.21 | 82.0 | 119.1 | Golden Grove, Jamaica
| %IMP | -127% | 8%
|
| GFNO | 18.12 | 72.78 | 45.0 | 474.5 | Jacmel, Haiti
| GFDL | 18.19 | 76.35 | 57.0 | 125.7 | Boston Bay, Jamaica
| %IMP | 49% | 74%
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12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 104.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 19.68 | 77.93 | 94.0 | 384.3 | Near Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| AVNO | 20.07 | 77.51 | 100.0 | 437.6 | Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| %IMP | 59% | -14%
|
| GFNO | 19.88 | 75.35 | 61.0 | 653.6 | Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
| GFDL | 21.50 | 81.62 | 94.0 | 289.1 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | 76% | 56%
|
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14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 139.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.55 | 79.29 | 107.0 | 612.7 | Sancti Spiritus, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| AVNO | 20.07 | 77.51 | 100.0 | 818.5 | Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| %IMP | 7% | -34%
|
| GFNO | 19.88 | 75.35 | 61.0 | 1042.9 | Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
| GFDL | 22.54 | 83.01 | 104.5 | 244.0 | Los Palacios, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 56% | 77%
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16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 198.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
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| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
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