Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 49 | 35 | 81 | 123 | 163 | 174 | 179 | 202 | 211 | 361
| AVNO | 91 | 109 | 171 | 211 | 300 | 320 | 304 | 281 | 262 | 341
| %IMP | -86% | -211% | -111% | -72% | -84% | -84% | -70% | -39% | -24% | 6%
|
| GFNO | 59 | 59 | 64 | 125 | 170 | 212 | 283 | 290 | 300 | 302
| GFDL | 76 | 142 | 202 | 224 | 256 | 278 | 322 | 314 | 343 | 360
| %IMP | -29% | -141% | -216% | -79% | -51% | -31% | -14% | -8% | -14% | -19%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -66 | -79 | -94 | -92 | -113 | -105 | -98 | -93 | -108 | -124
| AVNO | -66 | -74 | -92 | -89 | -111 | -101 | -95 | -90 | -96 | -113
| %IMP | 0% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 9%
|
| GFNO | 16 | 2 | -6 | -12 | -19 | -12 | -16 | -10 | -26 | -37
| GFDL | 11 | 25 | 9 | 4 | -26 | -18 | -26 | -23 | -35 | -55
| %IMP | 31% | -1150% | -50% | 67% | -37% | -50% | -63% | -130% | -35% | -49%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 07/2130 UTC 11.9N 61.8W 6 n mi SW of Prickly Point, Grenada 27.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 12.25 | 61.66 | 26.5 | 41.8 | Victoria, Grenada
| AVNO | 12.48 | 61.65 | 23.5 | 66.5 | Carriacou, Grenada
| %IMP | -300% | -59%
|
| GFNO | 12.16 | 61.65 | 28.0 | 33.2 | Grenville, Grenada
| GFDL | 13.00 | 61.35 | 30.0 | 131.6 | Battowie Island, St. Vincent and the Grenadines
| %IMP | -400% | -296%
|
|
11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 105.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 18.93 | 76.62 | 100.5 | 180.7 | Near Oracabessa, Jamaica
| AVNO | 17.17 | 78.19 | 94.5 | 108.1 | Offshore Black River, Jamaica
| %IMP | | -120% | 40%
|
| GFNO | 18.97 | 76.72 | 94.0 | 181.6 | Near Duncans, Jamaica
| GFDL | 19.85 | 77.36 | 100.5 | 272.7 | Near Niquero, Granma, Cuba
| %IMP | 57% | -50%
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 140.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 18.69 | 81.67 | 118.0 | 29.4 | Offshore Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| %IMP
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
|
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 175.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 228.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1.
NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 06 September 2004
1800 UTC (Hurricane Ivan).
