Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
24 September 2002 1800 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 150. | 96. | 59. | 113. |
| AVNO | 82. | 60. | 63. | 82. |
| %IMP | 45% | 38% | -7% | 27%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -11. | -17. | -17. | -23. |
| AVNO | -5. | -14. | -12. | -10. |
| %IMP | 55% | 18% | 29% | 57%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP
|
| SHNO | 12. | 20. | 30. | 50. | 72. | 70. |
| SHIP | 11. | 19. | 28. | 49. | 70. | 67. |
| %IMP | 8% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 4%
|
| DSNO | 12. | 20. | 30. | 16. | 16. | 10. |
| DSHP | 11. | 19. | 28. | 13. | 15. | 9. |
| %IMP | 8% | 5% | 7% | 19% | 6% | 10%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 36 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.11 | 90.89 | 36.5 | 57.3 | Near Cocodrie, LA
| AVAL | 29.22 | 90.61 | 38.5 | 32.9 | Cocodrie, LA
| %IMP | -400% | 43%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP
| | ||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 24 September 2002 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Isidore).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 24 September 2002 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 September 2002 1800 UTC.
