Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 September 2002 1200 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 113. | 108. | 185. | 234. | 275. | 361. | 401. | 521. | 644. | 1230.
| AVNO | 39. | 103. | 169. | 198. | 261. | 322. | 386. | 513. | 666. | 1368.
| %IMP | 65% | 5% | 9% | 15% | 5% | 11% | 4% | 2% | -3% | -11%
|
| GFNO | 70. | 84. | 76. | 93. | 133. | 101. | 148. | 266. | 369. | 932.
| GFAL | 70. | 126. | 133. | 128. | 143. | 151. | 193. | 259. | 330. | 676.
| %IMP | 0% | -50% | -75% | -38% | -8% | -50% | -30% | 3% | 11% | 27%
|
| AVNN | -63. | -24. | 0. | -9. | -4. | -3. | -8. | -11. | 26. | 20.
| AVNO | -52. | -18. | 10. | -6. | -2. | 1. | -4. | 2. | 35. | 28.
| %IMP | 17% | 25% | und% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 82% | -35% | -40%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | -18. | 20. | 48. | 56. | 69. | 73. | 63. | 41. | 28. | 17.
| GFAL | -13. | 27. | 54. | 56. | 54. | 52. | 47. | 40. | 27. | 19.
| %IMP | 28% | -35% | -13% | 0% | 22% | 29% | 25% | 2% | 4% | -12%
|
| SHNO | 14. | 60. | 87. | 73. | 73. | 67. | 58. | 57. | 89. | 84.
| SHIP | 13. | 59. | 88. | 77. | 80. | 75. | 68. | 63. | 91. | 86.
| %IMP | 7% | 2% | -1% | -5% | -10% | -12% | -17% | -11% | -2% | -2%
|
| DSNO | 14. | 60. | 87. | 73. | 73. | 67. | 58. | 57. | 89. | 84.
| DSHP | 13. | 59. | 88. | 77. | 80. | 75. | 68. | 63. | 91. | 86.
| %IMP | 7% | 2% | -1% | -5% | -10% | -12% | -17% | -11% | -2% | -2%
| | ||||||||||
| 22/2100 UTC 21.3N 89.3W Puerto Telchac, Yucatan, Mexico 9 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.36 | 89.18 | 17.0 | 14.1 | Telchac Puerto, Yucatan, Mexico
| AVAL | 21.30 | 89.60 | 12.0 | 31.1 | Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | 63% | -121%
|
| GFNO | 21.50 | 88.65 | 8.5 | 70.8 | Dzilam de Bravo, Yucatan, Mexico
| GFAL | 21.56 | 88.60 | 5.5 | 77.9 | Punta Yalkubul, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | -600% | -10%
|
|
26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 90 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.76 | 93.63 | 112.0 | 330.5 | Johnsons Bayou, LA
| AVAL | 29.75 | 93.75 | 115.0 | 337.2 | Johnsons Bayou, LA
| %IMP | -14% | -2%
|
| GFNO | 29.59 | 92.62 | 96.5 | 231.2 | Pecan Island, LA
| GFAL | 29.63 | 92.53 | 97.0 | 223.8 | Pecan Island, LA
| %IMP | -8% | 3%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 September 2002 1200 UTC (Hurricane Isidore).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 September 2002 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 September 2002 1200 UTC.
