Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 September 2002 0000 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 30. | 85. | 189. | 297. | 400. | 488. | 541. | 686. | 893. | 1152.
| AVNO | 33. | 96. | 229. | 287. | 376. | 435. | 540. | 685. | 914. | 1180.
| %IMP | -10% | -13% | -21% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 0% | 0% | -2% | -2%
|
| GFNO | 38. | 59. | 77. | 117. | 154. | 198. | 386. | 508. | 624. | 827.
| GFAL | 35. | 64. | 133. | 193. | 260. | 343. | 514. | 659. | 893. | 1138.
| %IMP | 8% | -8% | -73% | -65% | -69% | -73% | -33% | -30% | -43% | -38%
|
| AVNN | -73. | -63. | -23. | 10. | -4. | 4. | 4. | 4. | 7. | 18.
| AVNO | -57. | -49. | -9. | 17. | 3. | 11. | 15. | 15. | 7. | 23.
| %IMP | 22% | 22% | 61% | -70% | 25% | -175% | -275% | -275% | 0% | -28%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | -8. | 12. | 37. | 62. | 48. | 57. | 72. | 69. | 72. | 99.
| GFAL | -8. | 14. | 45. | 63. | 42. | 35. | 29. | 21. | 23. | 61.
| %IMP | 0% | -17% | -22% | -2% | 12% | 39% | 60% | 70% | 68% | 38%
|
| SHNO | 6. | 21. | 63. | 90. | 76. | 72. | 69. | 58. | 51. | 79.
| SHIP | 5. | 21. | 65. | 91. | 77. | 74. | 70. | 61. | 55. | 83.
| %IMP | 17% | 0% | -3% | -1% | -1% | -3% | -1% | -5% | -8% | -5%
|
| DSNO | 6. | 21. | 63. | 90. | 76. | 72. | 69. | 58. | 51. | 79.
| DSHP | 5. | 21. | 65. | 91. | 77. | 74. | 70. | 61. | 55. | 83.
| %IMP | 17% | 0% | -3% | -1% | -1% | -3% | -1% | -5% | -8% | -5%
| | ||||||||||
| 22/2100 UTC 21.3N 89.3W Puerto Telchac, Yucatan, Mexico 21 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.16 | 90.42 | 26.5 | 117.0 | Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico
| AVAL | 21.15 | 90.38 | 24.5 | 113.1 | Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | 36% | 3%
|
| GFNO | 21.33 | 89.40 | 26.0 | 10.9 | Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico
| GFAL | 21.10 | 90.20 | 28.5 | 95.8 | Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP
|
|
26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 102 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.43 | 97.30 | 116.5 | 802.6 | Guajardo, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| AVAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| | |||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 September 2002 0000 UTC (Hurricane Isidore).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 September 2002 0000 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3.
