Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
21 September 2002 0600 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 88. | 112. | 136. | 287. | 423. | 486. | 559. | 692. | 720. | 884.
| AVNO | 108. | 62. | 66. | 113. | 274. | 373. | 450. | 567. | 685. | 854.
| %IMP | -23% | 45% | 51% | 61% | 35% | 23% | 19% | 18% | 5% | 3%
|
| GFNO | 69. | 39. | 111. | 206. | 281. | 283. | 274. | 408. | 532. | 751.
| GFAL | 84. | 93. | 161. | 253. | 312. | 303. | 294. | 431. | 588. | 872.
| %IMP | -22% | -138% | -45% | -23% | -11% | -7% | -7% | -6% | -11% | -16%
|
| AVNN | -82. | -80. | -80. | -36. | -4. | 2. | -3. | -1. | -15. | -29.
| AVNO | -58. | -54. | -53. | -17. | 5. | 16. | 18. | 23. | 16. | -7.
| %IMP | 29% | 33% | 34% | 53% | -25% | -700% | -500% | -2200% | -7% | 76%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | -22. | 2. | 6. | 52. | 76. | 80. | 77. | 73. | 68. | 69.
| GFAL | -26. | -13. | -3. | 43. | 66. | 65. | 61. | 44. | 27. | 20.
| %IMP | -18% | -550% | 50% | 17% | 13% | 19% | 21% | 40% | 60% | 71%
|
| SHNO | -23. | -18. | -13. | 34. | 59. | 66. | 61. | 60. | 55. | 54.
| SHIP | -23. | -17. | -11. | 35. | 60. | 66. | 61. | 58. | 51. | 48.
| %IMP | 0% | 6% | 15% | -3% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 7% | 11%
|
| DSNO | -23. | -18. | -13. | 34. | 59. | 66. | 61. | 60. | 55. | 54.
| DSHP | -23. | -17. | -11. | 35. | 60. | 66. | 61. | 58. | 51. | 48.
| %IMP | 0% | 6% | 15% | -3% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 7% | 11%
| | ||||||||||
| 22/2100 UTC 21.3N 89.3W Puerto Telchac, Yucatan, Mexico 39 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.13 | 89.88 | 34.5 | 109.9 | Well offshore Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico
| AVAL | 21.10 | 90.42 | 46.0 | 118.1 | Well offshore Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | -56% | -7%
|
| GFNO | 22.29 | 87.17 | 19.5 | 245.7 | Well offshore Yucatan, Mexico
| GFAL | 22.63 | 87.06 | 17.5 | 274.0 | Well offshore Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | -10% | -11%
|
|
26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 120 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.77 | 97.61 | 115.5 | 869.3 | Los Ebanos, Tamaulipas, Mexico
| AVAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 21 September 2002 0600 UTC (Hurricane Isidore).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 21 September 2002 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 21 September 2002 0600 UTC.
