Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
20 September 2002 0600 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 61. | 38. | 129. | 168. | 168. | 225. | 333. | 407. | 525. | 763.
| AVNO | 89. | 63. | 24. | 43. | 67. | 67. | 139. | 272. | 416. | 670.
| %IMP | -46% | -66% | 81% | 74% | 60% | 70% | 58% | 33% | 21% | 12%
|
| GFNO | 23. | 43. | 105. | 98. | 147. | 196. | 167. | 98. | 128. | 139.
| GFAL | 39. | 30. | 134. | 134. | 167. | 223. | 168. | 98. | 226. | 239.
| %IMP | -70% | 30% | -28% | -37% | -14% | -14% | -1% | 0% | -77% | -72%
|
| AVNN | -47. | -55. | -81. | -80. | -81. | -36. | -7. | -2. | -6. | -8.
| AVNO | -29. | -41. | -61. | -59. | -67. | -31. | -17. | -15. | -12. | -5.
| %IMP | 38% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 17% | 14% | -143% | -650% | -100% | 38%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | 22. | 16. | -6. | 9. | 4. | 41. | 56. | 52. | 57. | 68.
| GFAL | 13. | 26. | 4. | 3. | 5. | 40. | 51. | 42. | 52. | 48.
| %IMP | 41% | -63% | 33% | 67% | -25% | 2% | 9% | 19% | 9% | 29%
|
| SHNO | 13. | 7. | -14. | -11. | -8. | 32. | 52. | 56. | 50. | 50.
| SHIP | 12. | 7. | -11. | -7. | -2. | 37. | 55. | 58. | 51. | 50.
| %IMP | 8% | 0% | 21% | 36% | 75% | -16% | -6% | -4% | -2% | 0%
| DSNO | 13. | -4. | -25. | -22. | -19. | 21. | 41. | 45. | 39. | 39.
| DSHP | 12. | -3. | -22. | -17. | -13. | 26. | 44. | 47. | 40. | 39.
| %IMP | 8% | 25% | 12% | 43% | 22% | -24% | -7% | -4% | -3% | 0%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 20/2100 UTC 22.0N 84.1W Cabo Frances, Cuba 15 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.32 | 83.38 | 2.0 | 106.0 | Near Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.46 | 82.74 | 5.5 | 152.6 | Punta de Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | 27% | -44%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 21.96 | 83.99 | 9.0 | 12.2 | Cabo Frances, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP
|
|
22/2100 UTC 21.3N 89.3W Puerto Telchac, Yucatan, Mexico 63 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.77 | 90.72 | 62.0 | 155.8 | Well offshore Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico
| AVAL | 21.53 | 88.51 | 54.0 | 85.6 | Punta Yalkubul, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | -800% | 45%
|
| GFNO | 21.56 | 88.82 | 92.5 | 57.4 | Near Dzilam de Bravo, Yucatan, Mexico
| GFAL | 21.49 | 88.96 | 93.0 | 41.0 | Dzilam de Bravo, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | -2% | 29%
|
|
26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 144 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 20 September 2002 0600 UTC (Hurricane Isidore).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 20 September 2002 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 20 September 2002 0600 UTC.
