Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
19 September 2002 1200 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 59. | 138. | 127. | 171. | 136. | 114. | 133. | 183. | 252. | 311.
| AVNO | 30. | 76. | 70. | 67. | 67. | 0. | 33. | 125. | 193. | 303.
| %IMP | 49% | 45% | 45% | 61% | 51% | 100% | 75% | 32% | 27% | 3%
|
| GFNO | 62. | 113. | 153. | 243. | 229. | 279. | 400. | 517. | 635. | 796.
| GFAL | 76. | 108. | 166. | 264. | 275. | 332. | 460. | 609. | 731. | 984.
| %IMP | -23% | 4% | -8% | -9% | -20% | -19% | -16% | -18% | -15% | -24%
|
| AVNN | -51. | -60. | -50. | -77. | -86. | -85. | -71. | -29. | 6. | -4.
| AVNO | -44. | -55. | -46. | -70. | -79. | -79. | -70. | -26. | -2. | -10.
| %IMP | 14% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 1% | 10% | 67% | -150%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | 10. | 25. | 40. | 22. | 10. | 17. | 24. | 61. | 83. | 65.
| GFAL | 19. | 29. | 41. | 17. | 7. | 6. | 14. | 49. | 68. | 60.
| %IMP | -90% | -16% | -3% | 23% | 30% | 65% | 42% | 20% | 18% | 8%
|
| SHNO | -7. | -10. | 7. | -11. | -16. | -12. | 1. | 40. | 65. | 49.
| SHIP | -8. | -13. | 4. | -15. | -19. | -15. | -1. | 39. | 64. | 48.
| %IMP | -14% | -30% | 43% | -36% | -19% | -25% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2%
|
| DSNO | -7. | -22. | -19. | -37. | -41. | -38. | -25. | 15. | 39. | 23.
| DSHP | -8. | -24. | -20. | -39. | -43. | -39. | -26. | 15. | 39. | 24.
| %IMP | -14% | -9% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -3% | -4% | 0% | 0% | -4%
| | ||||||||||
| 20/2100 UTC 22.0N 84.1W Cabo Frances, Cuba 33 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.44 | 82.85 | 14.0 | 143.2 | Punta de Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| AVAL | 22.00 | 84.00 | 24.0 | 10.3 | Sandino, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | 53% | 97%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 22.52 | 83.04 | 26.0 | 123.4 | Los Palacios, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP
|
|
22/2100 UTC 21.3N 89.3W Puerto Telchac, Yucatan, Mexico 81 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.36 | 90.73 | 93.0 | 148.1 | Near Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico
| AVAL | 21.35 | 89.34 | 81.0 | 6.9 | Telchac Puerto, Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | 100% | 95%
|
| GFNO | 23.50 | 86.62 | 85.5 | 368.1 | Well offshore Yucatan, Mexico
| GFAL | 24.46 | 86.90 | 80.0 | 428.5 | Well offshore Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | 78% | -16%
|
|
26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 162 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 19 September 2002 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Isidore).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 19 September 2002 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 19 September 2002 1200 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The triangles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 4. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 19 September 2002 1200 UTC. The triangles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
