Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
19 September 2002 0600 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 33. | 70. | 114. | 114. | 175. | 169. | 106. | 152. | 182. | 212.
| AVNO | 67. | 138. | 183. | 129. | 177. | 129. | 188. | 265. | 278. | 202.
| %IMP | -103% | -97% | -61% | -13% | -1% | 24% | -77% | -74% | -53% | 5%
|
| GFNO | 86. | 47. | 113. | 179. | 324. | 366. | 542. | 806. | 1080. | 1459.
| GFAL | 56. | 111. | 200. | 248. | 382. | 442. | 639. | 910. | 1223. | 1435.
| %IMP | 35% | -136% | -77% | -39% | -18% | -21% | -18% | -13% | -13% | 2%
|
| AVNN | -38. | -66. | -50. | -58. | -87. | -85. | -84. | -41. | -14. | -9.
| AVNO | -34. | -62. | -47. | -56. | -81. | -79. | -82. | -37. | -18. | -12.
| %IMP | 11% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 10% | -29% | -33%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | -11. | 2. | 19. | 23. | 0. | -2. | 2. | 35. | 58. | 13.
| GFAL | 14. | 5. | 37. | 20. | 2. | -8. | -19. | 30. | 22. | -1.
| %IMP | -27% | -150% | -95% | 13% | und% | -300% | -850% | 14% | 62% | 92%
|
| SHNO | -9. | -28. | -7. | -10. | -29. | -25. | -21. | 19. | 40. | 46.
| SHIP | -10. | -29. | -7. | -11. | -28. | -24. | -19. | 22. | 43. | 50.
| %IMP | -11% | -4% | 0% | -10% | 3% | 4% | 10% | -16% | -8% | -9%
|
| DSNO | -9. | -28. | -24. | -28. | -46. | -42. | -39. | 2. | 23. | 29.
| DSHP | -10. | -29. | -24. | -28. | -45. | -41. | -36. | 5. | 26. | 32.
| %IMP | -11% | -4% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 8% | -150% | -13% | -10%
| | ||||||||||
| 20/2100 UTC 22.0N 84.1W Cabo Frances, Cuba 39 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.19 | 83.29 | 21.5 | 122.9 | Near Punta de Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.50 | 82.64 | 17.5 | 160.6 | Punta de Guanal, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | -23% | -31%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 21.60 | 82.58 | 19.5 | 163.0 | Near La Fe, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP
|
|
22/2100 UTC 21.3N 89.3W Puerto Telchac, Yucatan, Mexico 87 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.30 | 90.86 | 104.0 | 161.5 | Near Celestun, Yucatan, Mexico
| AVAL | 22.82 | 89.08 | 101.0 | 170.4 | Well offshore Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | 18% | -6%
|
| GFNO | 29.99 | 84.39 | 111.5 | 1083.5 | Well offshore Yucatan, Mexico
| GFAL | 29.71 | 84.85 | 105.0 | 1035.4 | Well offshore Yucatan, Mexico
| %IMP | 27% | 4%
|
|
26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 168 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | 29.99 | 84.39 | 111.5 | 579.7 | Surf, FL
| GFAL | 29.71 | 84.85 | 105.0 | 531.8 | Apalachicola, FL
| %IMP | -12% | 8%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 19 September 2002 0600 UTC (Tropical Storm Isidore).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 19 September 2002 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 19 September 2002 0600 UTC.
