Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
17 September 2002 1800 UTC
Isidore.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 34. | 103. | 171. | 185. | 188. | 221. | 273. | 319. | 286. | 399.
| AVNO | 15. | 118. | 147. | 179. | 161. | 189. | 154. | 252. | 268. | 399.
| %IMP | 56% | -15% | 14% | 3% | 14% | 14% | 44% | 21% | 6% | 0%
|
| GFNO | 129. | 231. | 137. | 68. | 85. | 91. | 62. | 43. | 161. | 266.
| GFAL | 81. | 168. | 160. | 115. | 132. | 135. | 157. | 251. | 373. | 613.
| %IMP | 37% | 28% | -17% | -69% | -55% | -48% | -153% | -484% | -132% | -130%
|
| AVNN | -18. | -30. | -30. | -47. | -70. | -55. | -67. | -91. | -94. | -94.
| AVNO | -18. | -29. | -28. | -44. | -66. | -55. | -67. | -91. | -88. | -88.
| %IMP | 0% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 6%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | -8. | -12. | -21. | -10. | -31. | -16. | -15. | -26. | -40. | -20.
| GFAL | -4. | 27. | 40. | 31. | 15. | 36. | 15. | 1. | -5. | -9.
| %IMP | 50% | -125% | -90% | -210% | 52% | -125% | 0% | 96% | 87% | 55%
|
| SHNO | 1. | 1. | 5. | 0. | -15. | 8. | 1. | -21. | -20. | -21.
| SHIP | 1. | 0. | 4. | -2. | -17. | 6. | 0. | -21. | -20. | -20.
| %IMP | 0% | 100% | 20% | und% | -13% | 25% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 5%
|
| DSNO | 1. | 1. | 5. | 0. | -15. | 8. | 1. | -21. | -20. | -21.
| DSHP | 1. | 0. | 4. | -2. | -17. | 6. | 0. | -21. | -20. | -20.
| %IMP | 0% | 100% | 20% | und% | -13% | 25% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 5%
| | ||||||||||
| 20/2100 UTC 22.0N 84.1W Cabo Frances, Cuba 75 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.61 | 81.48 | 64.0 | 273.7 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.72 | 81.40 | 57.5 | 280.1 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | -59% | -2%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 22.42 | 83.13 | 76.5 | 110.1 | Near Bahia de Cochinas, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP
|
|
22/2100 UTC 21.3N 89.3W Puerto Telchac, Yucatan, Mexico 123 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 20.39 | 85.55 | 115.5 | 402.3 | Near Cozumel, Quintana Roo, Mexico
| AVAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
|
26/0600 UTC 29.1N 90.3W Just west of Grand Isle, LA 204 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFAL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 17 September 2002 1800 UTC (Tropical Depression Ten).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 17 September 2002 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 17 September 2002 1800 UTC.
