Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
15 September 2003 1200 UTC
Isabel.
Quicktime movie of GFS DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 24 | 40 | 76 | 168 | 275 | 329 | 357 | 497 | 839
| AVNO | 39 | 35 | 50 | 106 | 149 | 143 | 204 | 316 | 439
| %IMP | -63% | 12% | 34% | 37% | 36% | 57% | 43% | 36% | 48%
|
| GFNO | 49 | 67 | 78 | 80 | 111 | 170 | 96 | 102 | 190
| GFDL | 70 | 89 | 91 | 89 | 104 | 166 | 105 | 40 | 290
| %IMP | -43% | -33% | -17% | -11% | 6% | 2% | 19% | 61% | -53%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -56 | -45 | -39 | -37 | -33 | -31 | 3 | 19 | 4
| AVNO | -28 | -24 | -21 | -15 | -13 | -18 | 13 | 8 | 6
| %IMP | 50% | 47% | 46% | 41% | 59% | 42% | -333% | 58% | -50%
|
| GFNO | -2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 34
| GFDL | 6 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 35
| %IMP | -200% | 33% | -700% | -200% | -33% | 100% | 59% | 10% | -3%
|
| SHNO | 8 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 8 | -4 | 6 | 25 | 27
| SHIP | 9 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 3 | -12 | -3 | 17 | 24
| %IMP | -13% | -12% | -13% | 18% | 62% | -200% | 50% | 32% | 11%
|
| DSNO | 8 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 8 | -4 | -17 | -1 | 4
| DSHP | 9 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 3 | -12 | -21 | -3 | 3
| %IMP | -13% | -12% | -13% | 18% | 62% | -200% | -24% | -200% | 25%
| | ||||||||||
| 18/1700 UTC 34.9N 76.2W Drum Inlet, NC 77.0 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 36.50 | 75.87 | 91.5 | 180.2 | Knotts Island, NC
| AVNO | 35.40 | 76.10 | 84.0 | 56.3 | Cape Lookout, NC
| %IMP | 52% | 69%
|
| GFNO | 35.20 | 75.60 | 72.0 | 63.9 | Hatteras, NC
| GFDL | 35.00 | 76.10 | 72.0 | 14.4 | Ocracoke, NC
| %IMP | 0% | 77%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 15 September 2003 1200 UTC (Hurricane Isabel).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 15 September 2003 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 15 September 2003 1200 UTC.
