Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
15 October 1999 1200 UTC
IRENE.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model
forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data
increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 232. | 318. | 305. | 209. | 220.
| AVAL | 187. | 230. | 227. | 217. | 202.
| %IMP | 19% | 28% | 26% | -4% | 8%
|
| GFNO | 170. | 304. | 422. | 412. | 320. | 256. | 376. | 592. |
| GFAL | 140. | 249. | 384. | 388. | 355. | 347. | 565. | 436. |
| %IMP | 18% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 11% | -36% | -50% | 26%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -34. | -36. | -38. | -39. | -49.
| AVAL | -29. | -37. | -35. | -39. | -49.
| %IMP | 15% | -3% | 8% | 0% | 0%
|
| GFNO | 13. | 12. | -11. | -25. | -30. | -21. | -9. | -35. |
| GFAL | 11. | 1. | -16. | -23. | -33. | -25. | -15. | -22. |
| %IMP | 15% | 92% | -45% | 8% | -10% | -19% | -67% | 37%
|
| SHNO | 1. | 2. | 1. | -2. | -18. | -31. | -20. | -19. |
| SHAL | 0. | 2. | 0. | -2. | -19. | -31. | -20. | -20. |
| %IMP | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -6% | 0% | 0% | -5%
|
| DSNO | 1. | -27. | -31. | -34. | -51. | -63. | -52. | -52. |
| DSAL | 0. | -27. | -31. | -34. | -50. | -62. | -52. | -51. |
| %IMP | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2%
| | ||||||||||
| 15/1300 UTC 24.6N 81.6W Key West, FL 1 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 24.40 | 82.36 | 5.5 | 80.0 | Near Dry Tortugas, FL
| AVAL | 24.51 | 82.06 | 7.0 | 47.5 | Dry Tortugas, FL
| %IMP | 71% | 42%
|
| GFNO | 25.72 | 82.18 | 10.0 | 137.4 | Near Key West, FL
| GFAL | 24.56 | 81.81 | 1.5 | 21.7 | Key West, FL
| %IMP | 50% | 5%
|
|
15/2000 UTC 25.3N 81.1W Cape Sable, FL 08 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.30 | 82.55 | 32.5 | 265.0 | Sarasota, FL
| AVAL | 26.51 | 82.20 | 21.5 | 173.7 | Cape Coral, FL
| %IMP | 63% | 57%
|
| GFNO | 30.10 | 84.10 | 36.0 | 609.5 | St. Marks, FL
| GFAL | 26.41 | 82.09 | 14.5 | 158.1 | Sanibel Island, FL
| %IMP | 63% | 67%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 15 October 1999 1200 UTC (Hurricane Irene).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 15 October 1999 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 15 October 1999 1200 UTC.
Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 15 October 1999 1200 UTC.