Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
13 October 1999 1800 UTC
IRENE.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model
forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data
increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 33. | 183. | 163. | 190. | 290. | 326. | 359. | 368. | 533.
| AVAL | 98. | 121. | 71. | 102. | 269. | 327. | 426. | 456. | 503.
| %IMP | -197% | 34% | 54% | 46% | 7% | 0% | -19% | -24% | 6%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -37. | -32. | -36. | -38. | -39. | -41. | -43. | -43. | -64.
| AVAL | -36. | -29. | -36. | -36. | -36. | -36. | -40. | -42. | -63.
| %IMP | 3% | 9% | 0% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 2%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP
|
| SHNO | -17. | -8. | -7. | 1. | 6. | 6. | 7. | 1. | -26. | -12.
| SHAL | -16. | -8. | -7. | 0. | 5. | 4. | 5. | -1. | -27. | -13.
| %IMP | 6% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 17% | 33% | 29% | 0% | -4% | -8%
|
| DSNO | -17. | -20. | -17. | -10. | -5. | -5. | -3. | -10. | -37. | -23.
| DSAL | -16. | -20. | -17. | -11. | -6. | -7. | -6. | -11. | -38. | -24.
| %IMP | 6% | 0% | 0% | -10% | -20% | -40% | -100% | -10% | -3% | -4%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14/1200 UTC 21.7N 83.0W Western Isle of Youth, Cuba 18 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.17 | 83.92 | 18.0 | 108.2 | Galafre, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.59 | 83.19 | 10.5 | 23.1 | Punta Frances, La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| %IMP | und% | 79%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP |
|
|
14/1900 UTC 22.7N 82.5W Batabano, Cuba 25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.17 | 83.92 | 18.0 | 157.3 | Galafre, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVAL | 22.37 | 83.25 | 16.5 | 85.2 | Near Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| %IMP | -21% | 46%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP |
|
|
15/1300 UTC 24.6N 81.6W Key West, FL 43 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.10 | 82.20 | 60.0 | 82.1 | Near Key West, FL
| AVAL | 24.32 | 81.70 | 49.0 | 32.7 | Near Key West, FL
| %IMP | 65% | 60%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP |
|
15/2000 UTC 25.3N 81.1W Cape Sable, FL 50 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.75 | 81.35 | 70.0 | 55.9 | Chokoloskee, FL
| AVAL | 24.75 | 80.38 | 62.0 | 94.8 | Near Plantation Key, FL
| %IMP | 40% | -70%
|
| GFNO | No forecast available
| GFAL | No forecast available
| %IMP
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 13 October 1999 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Irene).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 13 October 1999 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 October 1999 1800 UTC.
Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 October 1999 1800 UTC.