Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
21 September 1999 0600 UTC
HARVEY.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 132.
| AVAL | 132.
| %IMP | 0%
|
| GFNO | 91.
| GFAL | 104.
| %IMP | -14%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -23.
| AVAL | -23.
| %IMP | 0%
|
| GFNO | 5.
| GFAL | 22.
| %IMP | -340%
|
| SHNO | 2.
| SHAL | 2.
| %IMP | 0%
|
| DSNO | 2.
| DSAL | 2.
| %IMP | 0%
| | ||||||||||
| 21/1700 UTC 25.9N 81.7W Near Everglades City, FL 11 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.76 | 82.08 | 8.0 | 102.8 | Boca Grande, FL
| AVAL | 26.78 | 82.16 | 8.0 | 108.0 | Boca Grande, FL
| %IMP | 0% | -5%
|
| GFNO | 26.61 | 82.05 | 9.5 | 86.2 | Cayo Costa, FL
| GFAL | 26.65 | 81.91 | 9.5 | 85.9 | Flamingo Bay, FL
| %IMP | 0% | 0%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 210 hPa mean wind analysis for 21 September 1999 0600 UTC (Tropical Storm Harvey).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 21 September 1999 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 210 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 21 September 1999 0600 UTC.
Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 210 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 21 September 1999 0600 UTC.