Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
13 September 2002 0600 UTC
HANNA.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 44. | 176. | 283. | 460. |
| AVNO | 177. | 303. | 402. | 579. |
| %IMP | -308% | -72% | -42% | -26%
|
| GFNO | 102. | 189. | 321. | 639.
| GFAL | 140. | 308. | 531. | 860.
| %IMP | -37% | -63% | -65% | -35%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -17. | -20. | -17. | -7. |
| AVNO | -12. | -21. | -15. | -6. |
| %IMP | 29% | -5% | 12% | 14%
|
| GFNO | -11. | -6. | 7. | 25.
| GFDL | -4. | -7. | 18. | 23.
| %IMP | 64% | -16% | -157% | 8%
|
| SHNO | -5. | -5. | 21. | 37. |
| SHIP | -4. | -3. | 23. | 37.
| %IMP | 20% | 40% | -10% | 0%
|
| DSNO | -5. | -5. | 4. | 9.
| DSHP | -4. | -3. | 5. | 9.
| %IMP | 20% | 40% | -25% | 0%
| | |||||||||||||||
| 14/0800 UTC 29.1N 89.1W Mouth of the Mississippi River 26 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.17 | 89.01 | 13.0 | 7.8 | Pilottown, LA
| AVAL | 29.06 | 89.01 | 13.0 | 9.8 | Port Eads, LA
| %IMP | 0% | -26%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 29.17 | 88.33 | 15.0 | 75.1 | Near Pointe a la Hache, LA
| %IMP
|
|
14/1500 UTC 30.4N 88.4W Alabama/Mississippi border 33 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.32 | 88.45 | 24.5 | 10.1 | Pascagoula, MS
| AVAL | 30.26 | 87.81 | 20.0 | 58.7 | Gasque, AL
| %IMP | -53% | -481%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 30.35 | 88.12 | 20.5 | 27.4 | Heron Bay, AL
| %IMP
| | |||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 13 September 2002 0600 UTC (Tropical Storm Hanna).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 13 September 2002 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 September 2002 0600 UTC.
