Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
12 September 2002 1800 UTC
HANNA.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 32. | 81. | 173. | 235. | 518. |
| AVNO | 54. | 103. | 204. | 278. | 474. |
| %IMP | -69% | -27% | -18% | -18% | 8%
|
| GFNO | 67. | 111. | 191.
| GFAL | 67. | 157. | 246. |
| %IMP | 0% | -41% | -29%
|
| AVNN | -16. | -18. | -18. | -16. | -5. |
| AVNO | -15. | -17. | -18. | -16. | -6. |
| %IMP | 6% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 029%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO | -12. | -15. | -21.
| GFDL | -12. | -15. | -18.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | 14%
|
| SHNO | -7. | -8. | -9. | 14. | 28. |
| SHIP | -6. | -4. | -3. | 20. | 32. |
| %IMP | 14% | 50% | 67% | -43% | -14%
|
| DSNO | -7. | -8. | -8. | -2. | 7. |
| DSHP | -6. | -4. | -5. | -1. | 8. |
| %IMP | 14% | 50% | 38% | 50% | -14%
| | ||||||||||
| 14/0800 UTC 29.1N 89.1W mouth of the Mississippi River 38 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.85 | 88.70 | 34.0 | 91.9 | Mississippi Delta, LA
| AVAL | 29.17 | 88.51 | 29.5 | 57.8 | Near Pilottown, LA
| %IMP | -138% | 36%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 29.21 | 89.09 | 20.0 | 58.5 | Pilottown, LA
| %IMP
|
|
14/1500 UTC 30.4N 88.4W near Alabama/Mississippi border 45 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.20 | 88.60 | 36.0 | 29.4 | Near Pascagoula, MS
| AVAL | 30.40 | 88.30 | 36.0 | 9.6 | Sans Souci Beach, AL
| %IMP | 0% | 67%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 30.27 | 89.40 | 27.0 | 97.0 | Waveland, MS
| %IMP
| | |||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 12 September 2002 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Hanna).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 12 September 2002 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 September 2002 1800 UTC.
