Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
10 September 2002 1200 UTC
GUSTAV.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 56. | 69. |
| AVNO | 56. | 89. |
| %IMP | 0% | -29%
|
| GFNO | 67. | 172. | 363. | 309. | 462. | 728. | 946.
| GFAL | 76. | 112. | 262. | 285. | 460. | 780. | 944.
| %IMP | -13% | 35% | 28% | 8% | 0% | -7% | 0%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -20. | -32. |
| AVNO | -18. | -29. |
| %IMP | 10% | 9%
|
| GFNO | 12. | 9. | 20. | 18. | 2. | 0. | -11.
| GFAL | 6. | 4. | 7. | 18. | 5. | -3. | -10.
| %IMP | 50% | 56% | 65% | 0% | -150% | und% | 9%
|
| SHNO | 3. | -4. | -10. | 9. | 10. | 17. | 22. | 32. | 38.
| SHIP | 4. | -3. | -6. | 16. | 20. | 25. | 26. | 30. | 31.
| %IMP | -33% | 25% | 40% | -78% | -100% | -47% | -18% | -6% | 18%
|
| DSNO | 3. | -4. | -10. | 9. | 0. | 7. | 11. | 22. | 28.
| DSHP | 4. | -3. | -6. | 16. | 7. | 12. | 13. | 16. | 18.
| %IMP | -33% | 25% | 40% | -78% | und% | -71% | -18% | 27% | 36%
| | ||||||||||||||
| 12/0430UTC 45.6N 60.4W Near Kelpy Cove, Nova Scotia 40.5 h into forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVAL | 45.19 | 58.35 | 42.5 | 166.3 | Near Sydney, NS
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 44.67 | 58.15 | 44.0 | 204.5 | Near Sidney, NS
| %IMP | 63% | 53%
|
|
|
12/0900UTC 47.6N 58.6W Rose-Blanche-Harbour le Cou, NFLD 46 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVAL | 47.50 | 55.03 | 47.5 | 267.9 | Great Jervais, NFLD
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 46.53 | 55.02 | 51.0 | 295.9 | Near St. Lawrence, NFLD
| %IMP | -25% | -2%
| | |||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 10 September 2002 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Gustav).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 10 September 2002 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 September 2002 1200 UTC.
