Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 September 2002 1800 UTC
GUSTAV.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 29. | 38. | 91. | 37. |
| AVNO | 67. | 22. | 14. | 54. |
| %IMP | -131% | 42% | 85% | 46%
|
| GFNO | 38. | 72. | 238. | 581. | 811. | 398. | 402. | 220. | 383.
| GFAL | 14. | 100. | 133. | 312. | 444. | 383. | 545. | 300. | 540.
| %IMP | 63% | -39% | 44% | 46% | 45% | 4% | -36% | -36% | -41%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -20. | -24. | -27. | -46. |
| AVNO | -19. | -23. | -23. | -45. |
| %IMP | 5% | 4% | 15% | 2%
|
| GFNO | -13. | -15. | 12. | 4. | 22. | 27. | 1. | 43. | 42.
| GFAL | -8. | 1. | 15. | 11. | 26. | 6. | -7. | 43. | 47.
| %IMP | 38% | 93% | -25% | -175% | -18% | 78% | -600% | 0% | -11%
|
| SHNO | -4. | 0. | 3. | -17. | -6. | 6. | 14. | 17. | 21. | 20.
| SHIP | -3. | 2. | 6. | -12. | 3. | 17. | 23. | 21. | 21. | 11.
| %IMP | 25% | und% | -100% | 29% | 50% | -183% | -64% | -24% | 0% | 45%
|
| DSNO | -4. | 0. | 3. | -17. | -6. | 6. | 14. | 17. | 21. | 20.
| DSHP | -3. | 2. | 6. | -12. | 3. | 17. | 23. | 21. | 21. | 11.
| %IMP | 25% | und% | -100% | 29% | 50% | -183% | -64% | -24% | 0% | 45%
| | ||||||||||||||
| 12/0430UTC 45.6N 60.4W Near Kelpy Cove, Nova Scotia 58.5 h into forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN No landfall forecast
| AVAL | 45.07 | 58.42 | 61.5 | 165.5 | Near Sydney, NS
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 46.45 | 54.25 | 66.5 | 483.7 | Near St. Shotts, NFLD
| %IMP | 30% | -12%
|
|
|
12/0900UTC 47.6N 58.6W Rose-Blanche-Harbour le Cou, NFLD 63 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN No landfall forecast
| AVAL | 46.92 | 55.54 | 65.5 | 242.8 | Lawn, NFLD
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 46.45 | 54.25 | 66.5 | 353.4 | Near St. Shotts, NFLD
| %IMP | 50% | -22%
| | |||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 September 2002 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Gustav).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 September 2002 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2002 1800 UTC.
