Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
Hurricane Gordon.


Quicktime movie of DLM wind analyses
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data initial increments


Surveillance flights
Sept. 13, 2000 Sept. 14, 2000 Sept. 16, 2000
Assessments for each forecast time at
September 13, 2000 18 Z
September 14, 2000 00 Z* 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
September 15, 2000 00 Z* 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
September 16, 2000 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
September 17, 2000 00 Z* 06 Z 12 Z
*Synoptic surveillence nominal times

Figure 1a. Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde and the all dropwindsonde runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for three Hurricane Gordon synoptic surveillance missions.

Figure 1b. Track forecast improvements for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for the three Hurricane Gordon synoptic surveillance missions.

Figure 2a. Intensity forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde and the all dropwindsonde runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for three Hurricane Gordon synoptic surveillance missions.

Figure 2b. Intensity forecast improvements for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for the three Hurricane Gordon synoptic surveillance missions.

(a)
(b)

Figure 3. Track forecast errors (a) and improvements (b) for the landfall of Hurricane Gordon at Cedar Key, FL, in the along-track direction for the no dropwindsonde and the all dropwindsonde runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

(a)
(b)

Figure 4. Track forecast errors (a) and improvements (b) for the landfall of Hurricane Gordon at Cedar Key, FL, in the along-track direction for the no dropwindsonde and the all dropwindsonde runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.


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