Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
17 September 2000 1200 UTC
GORDON.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 72. | 208. | 369. | 738. | 1187. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | 45. | 106. | 143. | 165. | 55. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 38% | 49% | 61% | 78% | 95%
|
| GFNO | 88. | 169. | 239. | 383. | 912. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | 81. | 174. | 260. | 417. | 1395. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 8% | -3% | -9% | -9% | -53%
|
| VBNO | 24. | 103. | 223. | 430. | 696. | 910. | 968. | 1011. | 9999. | 9999.
| VBAL | 24. | 95. | 222. | 427. | 697. | 916. | 981. | 1045. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -1% | -1% | -3%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -31. | -15. | -5. | -7. | -17. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | -25. | -15. | -2. | 1. | -7. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 19% | 0% | 60% | 86% | 59%
|
| GFNO | 31. | 4. | 3. | 7. | 7. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | 22. | 6. | 2. | 3. | 5. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 29% | -50% | 33% | 57% | 29%
|
| SHNO | 4. | 29. | 42. | 45. | 36. | 18. | 10. | 6. | 9999. | 9999.
| SHAL | 4. | 30. | 43. | 46. | 37. | 19. | 10. | 6. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | -3% | -2% | -2% | -3% | -6% | 0% | 0%
|
| DSNO | 4. | 3. | 7. | 8. | 2. | 2. | -3. | -3. | 9999. | 9999.
| DSAL | 4. | 3. | 7. | 8. | 2. | 2. | -3. | -3. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | ||||||||||
18/0300 UTC 29.3N 83.2W near Cedar Key, FL 15 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 30.10 | 84.13 | 20.0 | 126.3 | Near Apalachicola, FL
| AVAL | 29.74 | 83.87 | 4.0 | 81.2 | Near Perry, FL
| %IMP | -120% | 36%
|
| GFNO | 30.03 | 83.84 | 13.5 | 102.0 | Near Perry, FL
| GFAL | 30.04 | 83.92 | 14.0 | 107.7 | Near Perry, FL
| %IMP | 33% | -6%
|
| VBNO | 29.59 | 83.36 | 15.0 | 35.7 | Near Perry, FL
| VBAL | 29.51 | 83.39 | 15.0 | 29.7 | Near Perry, FL
| %IMP | 0% | 11%
|
| | |||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 17 September 2000 1200 UTC (Hurricane Gordon).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 17 September 2000 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 17 September 2000 1200 UTC.
