Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 September 2000 1800 UTC
GORDON.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 99. | 157. | 216. | 265. | 444. | 577. | 721. | 944. | 1240. | 1579.
| AVAL | 135. | 176. | 378. | 499. | 738. | 970. | 1186. | 1448. | 1715. | 2066.
| %IMP | -36% | -12% | -75% | -88% | -66% | -68% | -64% | -53% | -38% | -31%
|
| GFNO | dissipation forecast in 6 h
| GFAL
| %IMP
|
| VBNO | 30. | 83. | 216. | 240. | 238. | 163. | 221. | 427. | 631. | 892.
| VBAL | 38. | 83. | 216. | 240. | 223. | 157. | 263. | 491. | 720. | 968.
| %IMP | -27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 4% | -19% | -15% | -14% | -9%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -8. | -6. | -23. | -31. | -41. | -34. | -10. | 3. | 4. | -2.
| AVAL | -6. | -7. | -29. | -35. | -42. | -37. | -12. | 10. | 14. | 9.
| %IMP | 25% | -17% | -26% | -13% | -2% | -9% | -20% | -233% | -250% | -350%
|
| GFNO | dissipation forecast in 6 h
| GFAL
| %IMP
|
| SHNO | 5. | 9. | -4. | -5. | -7. | 4. | 32. | 48. | 54. | 50.
| SHAL | 5. | 9. | -4. | -5. | -7. | 3. | 31. | 46. | 52. | 48.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4%
|
| DSNO | 0. | -4. | -13. | -14. | -16. | -5. | 23. | 38. | 44. | 41.
| DSAL | 0. | -4. | -14. | -15. | -17. | -7. | 21. | 36. | 42. | 38.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | -8% | -7% | -6% | -40% | 9% | 9% | 5% | <7%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18/0300 UTC 29.3N 83.2W near Cedar Key, FL 81 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 29.16 | 89.32 | 117.5 | 593.6 | Mississippi River Delta
| AVAL | 30.25 | 85.91 | 99.5 | 281.8 | Laguna Beach, FL
| %IMP | 49% | 53%
|
| GFNO | dissipated
before landfall
| GFAL | 29.70 | 92.88 | 104.0 | 937.1 | Hog Bayou, LA
| %IMP |
|
| VBNO | 27.71 | 82.65 | 78.5 | 183.6 | St. Petersburg, FL
| VBAL | 27.43 | 82.66 | 77.0 | 214.4 | Longboat Key, FL
| %IMP | -60% | -17%
| | ||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 September 2000 1800 UTC (Tropical Depression Eleven).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 14 September 2000 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 September 2000 1800 UTC.
