Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
13 September 2000 1800 UTC
GORDON.

QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments

Landfall forecasts

18/0300 UTC 29.3N 83.2W near Cedar Key, FL 105 h into the forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

VBNO 25.94 81.70 81.5 401.4 Marco, FL
VBAL 25.79 81.27 81.0 433.8 Chevelier Bay,FL %IMP -1% -8%

Landfall forecasts
18/0300 UTC 29.3N 83.2W near Cedar Key, FL 105 h into the forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION

VBNO	25.94	81.70	81.5	401.4	Marco, FL
VBAL	25.79	81.27	81.0	433.8	Chevelier Bay,FL	%IMP	-1%	-8%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC (The tropical disturbance to become Hurricane Gordon).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 13 September 2000 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
13 September 2000 1800 UTC
GORDON.

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC (The tropical disturbance to become Hurricane Gordon).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 13 September 2000 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC GORDON.

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC (The tropical disturbance to become Hurricane Gordon).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 13 September 2000 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 September 2000 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
13 September 2000 1800 UTC
GORDON.