Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
16 September 2001 1200 UTC
GABRIELLE.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 79. | 147. | 312. | 430. | 670. | 809. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | 48. | 147. | 257. | 420. | 612. | 868. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 39% | 0% | 18% | 2% | 9% | -7%
|
| GFNO | 117. | 233. | 289. | 353. | 364. | 297. | 421. | 463. | 570. | 9999.
| GFAL | 103. | 212. | 345. | 406. | 458. | 464. | 745. | 909. | 1035. | 9999.
| %IMP | 12% | 9% | -19% | -15% | -26% | -56% | -77% | -96% | -82%
|
| VBNO | 57. | 70. | 56. | 45. | 175. | 451. | 537. | 641. | 9999. | 9999.
| VBAL | 51. | 70. | 56. | 49. | 164. | 432. | 517. | 628. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 11% | 0% | 0% | -9% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 2%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -29. | -36. | -27. | -26. | -32. | -32. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | -28. | -34. | -24. | -23. | -29. | -28. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 3% | 6% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 13%
|
| GFNO | -8. | 6. | 26. | 42. | 37. | 32. | 8. | 0. | -8. | 9999.
| GFAL | -9. | 10. | 26. | 43. | 43. | 38. | 12. | -2. | -12. | 9999.
| %IMP | -13% | -67% | 0% | -2% | -16% | -19% | -50% | und | -50%
|
| SHNO | -14. | -18. | -11. | -9. | -18. | -20. | -21. | -22. | -31. | -32.
| SHAL | -14. | -19. | -12. | -10. | -19. | -21. | -22. | -22. | -32. | -33.
| %IMP | 0% | -6% | -9% | -11% | -6% | -5% | -5% | 0% | -3% | -3%
|
| DSNO | -14. | -18. | -11. | -9. | -18. | -20. | -21. | -22. | -31. | -32.
| DSAL | -14. | -19. | -12. | -10. | -19. | -21. | -22. | -22. | -32. | -33.
| %IMP | 0% | -6% | -9% | -11% | -6% | -5% | -5% | 0% | -3% | -3%
| | ||||||||||
Figure 1.
NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 16 September 2001 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 16 September 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3.
Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the
no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 16 September 2001 1200 UTC.
Figure 4.
12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa
mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 16 September 2001 1200 UTC.